Match Info

Liga de Ascenso - Round 5

Date: 31 March 2025, Monday

Location: Estadio Municipal de La Pintana (Santiago de Chile)


	Santiago Morning		Rangers de Talca

	1	X	2
	3	3.1	2.1
	3.4	3.25	2.08
	3.56	3.33	2.07	Watch
	3.2	3	2.2
	3.46	3.46	2.04	Watch
	3.4	3.25	2.08
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (2.53)	3.23 ↓ (3.27)	2.1 ↓ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Santiago Morning
27.6%

Draw
28.5%

Rangers de Talca
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

28.1%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.9%

27.7%

35.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Santiago Morning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Santiago Morning's form might have worsened.

Rangers de Talca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rangers de Talca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santiago Morning than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Santiago Morning, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rangers de Talca than the current prediction. (-8.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rangers de Talca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Santiago Morning - Rangers de Talca Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Santiago Morning will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Rangers will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arana A. (G) 14. Vasquez K. 20. Ormeno E. 22. Rigazzi L. 3. Guajardo Barrera B. 4. Iturra M. 21. Manriquez Hernandez F. (C) 25. Estay D. 9. Cid W. 10. Campillay K. 34. Rojas N.	1. Rodriguez G. (G) 3. Sanhueza M. 4. San Juan B. (C) 15. Rodriguez C. 8. Leyton S. 13. Mora A. 18. Lobos C. 20. Moya G. 7. Reyes G. 17. Ibanez I. 31. Diaz I.
Substitutes
30. Barrientos J. 12. Canete L. (G) 15. Cortes F. 11. Escobar G. 8. Salazar S. 2. Santelices G. 18. Taiva B.	14. Acuna S. 6. Barrientos F. 25. Gamonal Ruiz J. L. (G) 5. Gonzalez M. 9. Sanchez J. 2. Toro I. 10. Verdugo A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Campillay K. 🟨,
35', Rojas N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
49', Guajardo Barrera B. 🟨,
56', Manriquez Hernandez F. 🟨,
58', Cid W. ↓, Escobar G. ↑,
58', Rojas N. ↓, Taiva B. ↑,
64', Moya G. ↓, Verdugo A. ↑,
65', 0 - 1, Ibanez I. ⚽,
74', Iturra M. ↓, Cortes F. ↑,
74', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
78', Taiva B. 🟨,
81', Leyton S. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
84', Diaz I. 🟨,
89', Diaz I. ↓, Sanchez J. ↑,
89', Mora A. ↓, Acuna S. ↑,
90+5', Sanhueza M. 🟨,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Santiago Morning won 3.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

Santiago Morning could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Rangers will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 8 head-to-head matches Santiago Morning won 5 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 11:4 (average 1.4:0.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Santiago Morning won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 5:2 (average 1.3:0.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Santiago Morning
Chilean Cup
22.03.25	Universidad de Chile - Santiago Morning	3:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
17.03.25	Deportes Recoleta - Santiago Morning	1:0 ✺
09.03.25	Santiago Morning - Curicó Unido	0:0 ✺
Chilean Cup
04.03.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Recoleta	1:0 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
28.02.25	Santiago Morning - Deportes Temuco	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LLTWW
- Rangers de Talca
Chilean Cup
24.03.25	Deportes Temuco - Rangers de Talca	3:2 ✺
Chilean Liga de Ascenso
15.03.25	Rangers de Talca - Cobreloa	1:1 ✺
08.03.25	Deportes Copiapó - Rangers de Talca	3:0 ✺
01.03.25	Rangers de Talca - San Luis de Quillota	2:2 ✺
23.02.25	Deportes Santa Cruz - Rangers de Talca	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTLTW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Liga de Ascenso
31.08.24	Santiago Morning - Rangers de Talca	0:1
20.04.24	Rangers de Talca - Santiago Morning	0:0
22.09.23	Rangers de Talca - Santiago Morning	0:2
15.05.23	Santiago Morning - Rangers de Talca	2:1
24.09.22	Santiago Morning - Rangers de Talca	3:0
30.04.22	Rangers de Talca - Santiago Morning	2:3
26.09.21	Rangers de Talca - Santiago Morning	0:1

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