Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 3 March 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Eva Peron (Junin)

Referee: Loustau J. C. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	HBO Max, TNT Sports
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Sarmiento de Junín		Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.1	4.75	Watch
	2.15	2.85	3.8
	1.95	3	4.6	Watch
	1.96	3.09	5.18
	1.78	3.35	5.23	Watch
	1.85	2.9	4.75
	1.91	3.1	5.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.01)	3.06 ↑ (2.9)	4.78 ↑ (4.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarmiento de Junín
49.2%

Draw
31%

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
19.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.2%

32%

21.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.8%

27.6%

25.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarmiento de Junín has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Estudiantes de Río Cuarto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarmiento de Junín than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sarmiento de Junín that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estudiantes de Río Cuarto than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Estudiantes de Río Cuarto could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
56.2%	37.5%	6.2%

Sarmiento de Junín - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Sarmiento will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). E Río Cuarto will win (votes: 1 - 6.3%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sarmiento: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarmiento (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Sarmiento (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sarmiento (votes: 3 - 75%). Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Burrai J. (G) 29. Santamaria T. 6. Arturia G. 2. Insaurralde J. (C) 33. Diaz G. 15. Zabala C. 5. Garcia M. 14. Martinez M. 11. Gomez J. 19. Contrera J. 27. Marabel J.	43. Lastra A. (G) 6. Antonini J. 2. Maffini G. (C) 31. Valenti M. 16. Ostchega T. 19. Talpone N. 13. Romero F. 10. Gonzalez T. 17. Alanis G. 22. Valiente M. 11. Garnerone M.
Substitutes
35. Alaggia F. 26. Arismendi Y. 12. Ayala T. (G) 4. Cabrera J. M. 9. Diego Churin 18. Gimenez O. 32. Gonzalez A. 40. Marquez B. 44. Orihuela R. 8. Salle S. 34. Seyral A. 25. Villalba C.	50. Abila R. 23. Bacchia R. (G) 3. Bersano F. 5. Cabrera A. 28. Cobos F. 9. Ferreira J. 26. Forclaz E. 79. Leiva T. 45. Lozano R. 29. Molina M. 30. Ojeda S. 8. Rosane S.
Coaches
Sava F.	Delfino I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Marabel J. (Penalty Awarded),
29', Arturia G. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ostchega T. ↓, Cobos F. ↑,
46', Talpone N. ↓, Rosane S. ↑,
46', Garnerone M. ↓, Abila R. ↑,
46', Arturia G. ↓, Seyral A. ↑,
48', Valenti M. 🟨,
59', Gomez J. ↓, Salle S. ↑,
65', Marabel J. ↓, Diego Churin ↑,
65', Diaz G. ↓, Arismendi Y. ↑,
69', Antonini J. ↓, Lozano R. ↑,
69', Insaurralde J. 🟨,
75', Salle S. 🟨,
77', Romero F. ↓, Ferreira J. ↑,
85', Gonzalez T. 🟨,
90+3', Zabala C. ↓, Villalba C. ↑,
90+3', Contrera J. 🟨,

Preview

In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 12 and 14).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Sarmiento is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Sarmiento: Godoy J. (Knee Injury) Gonzalez G. (Knee Injury) Magnin P. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in E Río Cuarto: Fenoglio V. (Knee Injury) Gonzalez L. (Inactive) Ruiz M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sarmiento: Suarez L. (Injury)

There are questionable in E Río Cuarto: Bajamich M. (Injury) Valiente M. (Injury)

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sarmiento won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sarmiento de Junín
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.02.26	Sarmiento de Junín - Unión Santa Fe	1:3 ✺
20.02.26	Estudiantes La Plata - Sarmiento de Junín	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Huracán Buenos Aires - Sarmiento de Junín	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Sarmiento de Junín - Atlético Tucumán	2:1 ✺
03.02.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Sarmiento de Junín	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 LLLWL
- Estudiantes de Río Cuarto
Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.02.26	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Huracán Buenos Aires	2:0 ✺
22.02.26	San Lorenzo - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	2:0 ✺
14.02.26	Atlético Tucumán - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	4:0 ✺
09.02.26	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Independiente Rivadavia	0:1 ✺
03.02.26	Banfield - Estudiantes de Río Cuarto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera Nacional
16.01.21	Estudiantes de Río Cuarto - Sarmiento de Junín	1:2 penalties

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