Match Info

Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 3

Date: 3 February 2026, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini (Mendoza)

Referee: Lobo Medina L. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN, ESPN Premium
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Disney+, Fanatiz
North-central-america	Disney+ Caribbean
Peru	Disney+
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter
World	TyC Sports Internacional


	Independiente Rivadavia		Sarmiento de Junín

	1	X	2
	1.71	3.3	5.5	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.6
	1.75	3.3	5.3	Watch
	1.78	3.37	5.58
	1.77	3.32	5.38	Watch
	1.75	3.1	5
	1.76	3.22	5.3	Watch
	1.77	3.25	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (2.1)	3.22 ↑ (3)	5.12 ↑ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Independiente Rivadavia
52.2%

Draw
29.4%

Sarmiento de Junín
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.5%

30.4%

26.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Independiente Rivadavia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Independiente Rivadavia's performance.

Sarmiento de Junín has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sarmiento de Junín might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90%	0%	10%

Independiente Rivadavia - Sarmiento de Junín Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Independiente R (1.19) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Independiente R (2.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Independiente Rivadavia will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Independiente Rivadavia will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Independiente R (votes: 10 - 83.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Bolcato N. (G) 13. Osella A. 40. Villalba I. 2. Costa L. 42. Studer S. 3. Elordi J. M. 10. Fernandez M. 5. Bottari T. 25. Florentin Bobadilla J. I. 43. Sartori F. 22. Villa S. (C)	1. Burrai J. (G) 44. Orihuela R. 6. Arturia G. 3. Suarez L. 8. Salle S. 15. Zabala C. 25. Villalba C. 11. Gomez J. 26. Arismendi Y. (C) 10. Renteria J. 9. Diego Churin
Substitutes
15. Arena N. 19. Atencio R. 36. Bonifacio E. 8. Bucca L. 27. Crego D. 17. Dadin B. 14. Gomez Riga E. F. (G) 12. Macagno R. (G) 34. Moreyra S. 7. Ramis V. 11. Rios G. 32. Vazquez K. A.	35. Alaggia F. 12. Ayala T. (G) 4. Cabrera J. M. 19. Contrera J. 32. Gonzalez A. 27. Marabel J. 40. Marquez B. 14. Martinez M. 30. Monaco M. 36. Morales S. 29. Santamaria T. 34. Seyral A.
Coaches
Berti A.	Sava F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
14', Villalba C. 🟨,
21', 1 - 0, Sartori F. ⚽,
23', Arismendi Y. 🟨,
41', Salle S. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gomez J. ↓, Contrera J. ↑,
46', Arismendi Y. ↓, Cabrera J. M. ↑,
52', 2 - 0, Osella A. ⚽,
61', Villalba C. ↓, Martinez M. ↑,
62', Salle S. ↓, Marabel J. ↑,
70', 2 - 1, Marabel J. ⚽, Renteria J. (A),
72', Sartori F. ↓, Dadin B. ↑,
72', Fernandez M. ↓, Rios G. ↑,
81', Osella A. ↓, Bonifacio E. ↑,
83', Renteria J. ↓, Marquez B. ↑,
88', Florentin Bobadilla J. I. ↓, Moreyra S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente R won 1.

In this match, Independiente R is the team to beat.

There will not play in Independiente R: Sequeira L. (Inactive)

There will not play in Sarmiento: Magnin P. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Sarmiento: Diaz G. (Inactive) Garcia M. (Inactive) Godoy J. (Inactive) Gonzalez G. (Knee Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Independiente R won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 6:8. (average 0.5:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Independiente R won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.7:0.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Sarmiento de Junín - the odds 3.5 are the expected chance of winning is 26.09%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Independiente Rivadavia
Argentinian Liga Profesional
27.01.26	Huracán Buenos Aires - Independiente Rivadavia	1:2 ✺
23.01.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Atlético Tucumán	2:1 ✺
Copa Argentina
18.01.26	Independiente Rivadavia - Estudiantes de Caseros	2:0 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
17.11.25	Defensa y Justicia - Independiente Rivadavia	0:2 ✺
10.11.25	Independiente Rivadavia - Central Córdoba	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 24.4 WWWWT
- Sarmiento de Junín
Argentinian Liga Profesional
29.01.26	Sarmiento de Junín - Banfield	1:0 ✺
25.01.26	Argentinos Juniors - Sarmiento de Junín	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	San Lorenzo - Sarmiento de Junín	1:1 ✺
09.11.25	Sarmiento de Junín - Instituto Córdoba	2:1 ✺
03.11.25	Platense - Sarmiento de Junín	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 WLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Liga Profesional
26.05.24	Sarmiento de Junín - Independiente Rivadavia	0:1
Argentinian Primera Nacional
25.05.19	Sarmiento de Junín - Independiente Rivadavia	2:0
18.05.19	Independiente Rivadavia - Sarmiento de Junín	0:1
12.03.19	Independiente Rivadavia - Sarmiento de Junín	0:0
18.03.18	Independiente Rivadavia - Sarmiento de Junín	0:1
05.10.14	Independiente Rivadavia - Sarmiento de Junín	0:2
09.08.14	Sarmiento de Junín - Independiente Rivadavia	0:0

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