Match Info

SPAIN: Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 18

Date: 19 January 2025, Sunday


	Sarriana		Arosa

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.87	2.65
	2.6	2.9	2.7
	2.69	2.9	2.69	Watch
	2.74	2.99	2.71
	2.6	2.9	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.63 ↑ (2.28)	2.91 ↓ (3.1)	2.69 ↓ (2.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarriana
34.7%

Draw
31.3%

Arosa
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.9%

29.3%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.6%

29.5%

31%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarriana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sarriana's form might have worsened.

Arosa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarriana than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arosa than the current prediction. (-2.9%)

Sarriana - Arosa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 1)
1', 1 - 0, Fernandez S. G. ⚽,
14', 2 - 0, (Own goal),
26', 3 - 0, (Own goal),
35', 3 - 1, Diz M. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
62', 4 - 1, Millan A. ⚽,

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Sarriana
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
11.01.25	Sarriana - Atlético Arteixo	2:2 ✺
21.12.24	UD Ourense - Sarriana	0:0 ✺
15.12.24	Sarriana - Betanzos	2:0 ✺
06.12.24	Polvorín - Sarriana	0:2 ✺
30.11.24	Sarriana - RC Villalbes	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TTWWL
- Arosa SC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
12.01.25	Alondras - Arosa	2:0 ✺
04.01.25	Arosa - Boiro	1:1 ✺
21.12.24	Arosa - Silva SD	2:2 ✺
14.12.24	Estradense - Arosa	1:2 ✺
06.12.24	Arosa - Gran Peña	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
08.09.24	Arosa - Sarriana	0:1
23.03.24	Arosa - Sarriana	0:1
05.11.23	Sarriana - Arosa	0:3

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