Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 16

Date: 21 December 2025, Sunday


	UD Ourense		Sarriana

	1	X	2
	1.85	3	4
	1.85	3	4.05
	2.04	3.05	4.13
	1.85	3.15	4.37	Watch
	1.85	3	4.2
	1.9	3.32	4.14
	1.83	3.1	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.88 ↑ (1.82)	3.09 ↓ (3.2)	4.2 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UD Ourense
48.6%

Draw
29.6%

Sarriana
21.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

28.4%

21.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

27.9%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UD Ourense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Sarriana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UD Ourense than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sarriana than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

UD Ourense - Sarriana Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', 1 - 0, Labrada J. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 11).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, UD Ourense is the team to beat.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, UD Ourense won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:2. (average 2.3:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, UD Ourense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:1. (average 2.3:0.3).

Last Results with these Odds

UD Ourense - the odds 1.82 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Ourense
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
14.12.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - UD Ourense	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	UD Ourense - Numancia	0:3 ✺
29.11.25	Lealtad - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
23.11.25	UD Ourense - Bergantiños	1:0 ✺
15.11.25	Real Oviedo B - UD Ourense	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 LLWWW
- SD Sarriana
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
14.12.25	Sarriana - Atlético Astorga	0:0 ✺
07.12.25	Langreo - Sarriana	0:2 ✺
30.11.25	Sarriana - Deportivo A Coruña B	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Rayo Cantabria - Sarriana	2:0 ✺
16.11.25	Sarriana - Burgos Promesas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
10.08.25	UD Ourense - Sarriana	5:0
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
21.12.24	UD Ourense - Sarriana	0:0
14.04.24	Sarriana - UD Ourense	1:2
26.11.23	UD Ourense - Sarriana	2:1

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