Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 29

Date: 5 April 2026, Sunday


	Estradense		Arosa

	1	X	2
	2.82	3.05	2.32
	3.09	2.95	2.33
	2.38	3.39	2.73	Watch
	2.8	3	2.3
	3.07	2.92	2.31
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.83 ↑ (2.45)	3.06 ↓ (3.2)	2.4 ↓ (2.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Estradense
32.2%

Draw
29.8%

Arosa
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.7%

28.1%

35.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.1%

28.4%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Estradense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.5%)

Arosa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Estradense than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Arosa than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Estradense - Arosa Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
30', 1 - 0, Pedrosa D. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', 1 - 1, Diz M. ⚽,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 8 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Tercera RFEF ~ Group 1 (Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estradense won 0.

Estradense is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Arosa is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Estradense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Arosa has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Estradense won 0 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 5:15. (average 0.5:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Estradense won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.8:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Estradense	5	2	1	2	8:9	-1	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Estradense
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
02.04.26	Estradense - Lugo B	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Atlético Arteixo - Estradense	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Estradense - Noia	0:0 ✺
19.03.26	RC Villalbes - Estradense	0:2 ✺
15.03.26	Estradense - Barbadás	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.1 WTTWW
- Arosa SC
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
02.04.26	Arosa - RC Villalbes	3:1 ✺
29.03.26	Arosa - Somozas	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Montañeros - Arosa	0:1 ✺
18.03.26	Arosa - Viveiro	4:1 ✺
15.03.26	Arosa - Atlético Arteixo	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
23.11.25	Arosa - Estradense	2:0
27.04.25	Arosa - Estradense	1:0
14.12.24	Estradense - Arosa	1:2
03.03.24	Estradense - Arosa	1:1
15.10.23	Arosa - Estradense	0:0
11.02.23	Estradense - Arosa	1:1
16.10.22	Arosa - Estradense	3:0

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