Match Info

Segunda RFEF - Group 1 - Round 5

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday


	Sarriana		Numancia

	1	X	2
	3.7	3.1	1.88
	3.95	3.15	1.85
	4.18	3.3	1.88
	12.11	5.76	1.21	Watch
	3.98	3.36	1.88
	3.95	3.15	1.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.31 ↑ (3.22)	3.64 ↑ (3.2)	1.76 ↓ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sarriana
18.2%

Draw
26.6%

Numancia
55.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.9%

29.1%

42%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

27.8%

43.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sarriana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sarriana's form might have worsened.

Numancia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Numancia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sarriana than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sarriana, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Numancia than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Numancia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sarriana - Numancia Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Numancia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Numancia (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Numancia (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
15', 0 - 1, Garcia D. ⚽,
43', 1 - 1, Ju ⚽,
2nd Half (3 - 1)
48', 1 - 2, Jony ⚽,
64', 2 - 2, Gning M. (Own goal),
67', 3 - 2, Douglas M. ⚽,
90+3', 4 - 2, Sane A. ⚽,

Preview

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Sarriana may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Sarriana has had a series of away games.

In this match, Numancia is seen as the favorite.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SD Sarriana
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
27.09.25	Sámano - Sarriana	1:2 ✺
21.09.25	Gimnástica Segoviana - Sarriana	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Sarriana - Lealtad	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Real Oviedo B - Sarriana	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
10.08.25	UD Ourense - Sarriana	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWLL
- CD Numancia
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 1
28.09.25	Numancia - Gimnástica Segoviana	1:0 ✺
21.09.25	Bergantiños - Numancia	3:1 ✺
14.09.25	Numancia - Rayo Cantabria	2:1 ✺
06.09.25	Lealtad - Numancia	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
28.08.25	Numancia - Conquense	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 WLWTL

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