Match Info

MLS

Date: 16 August 2026, Sunday

Location: Lumen Field (Seattle, WA)

Referee: Villarreal A. (Usa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Germany	Laola1
Israel	Sport 2
Usa	MLS Season Pass, SportsEngine Play
World	Apple TV International


	Seattle Sounders		Vancouver Whitecaps

	1	X	2
	3.75	3.80	1.86	Watch
	3.70	3.80	1.83
	3.75	3.80	1.85
	3.95	3.96	1.91
	3.55	3.86	1.95	Watch
	3.90	3.85	1.88
	3.83	3.88	1.95	Watch
	3.65	3.80	1.87
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.76 ↑ (3.34)	3.84 ↑ (3.76)	1.89 ↓ (1.98)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Seattle Sounders
25.2%

Draw
24.6%

Vancouver Whitecaps
50.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

24.8%

47.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.9%

21.1%

40.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Seattle Sounders has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Vancouver Whitecaps has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Seattle Sounders than the current prediction. (+7.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Seattle Sounders, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vancouver Whitecaps than the current prediction. (-10%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Vancouver Whitecaps, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Seattle Sounders - Vancouver Whitecaps Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Seattle will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Vancouver will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Seattle: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Seattle (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
26. Thomas A. (G) 85. Kossa-Rienzi K. 16. Roldan A. 25. Ragen J. 5. Nouhou 45. Kingston P. 37. Brunell S. 9. Ferreira J. 11. Rusnak A. (C) 14. Rothrock P. 19. Musovski D.	1. Takaoka Y. (G) 18. Ocampo E. 2. Laborda M. 6. Priso R. 28. Johnson T. 8. Larraz O. 20. Cubas A. 59. Badwal J. 13. Muller T. (C) 7. Sabaly C. 11. Sabbi E.
Substitutes
95. De Rosario O. 24. Frei S. (G) 84. Gaffney C. 32. Gnaulati X. 90. Gomez S. 39. Hawkins S. 20. Kim Kee-Hee 35. Lopez A. 4. Sailor R.	3. Adekugbe S. 33. Blackmon T. 32. Boehmer I. (G) 41. Djordjevic N. 19. Elloumi R. 25. Gauld R. 29. Gherasimencov M. 97. MacKenzie L. 26. Ngando J.
Coaches
Schmetzer B.	Sorensen J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
18', Badwal J. ↓, Elloumi R. ↑,
36', Ferreira J. ↓, Gomez S. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
57', Ragen J. 🟨,
58', Brunell S. ↓, Lopez A. ↑,
58', Sabaly C. ↓, Gauld R. ↑,
66', Priso R. ↓, Blackmon T. ↑,
73', Musovski D. ↓, De Rosario O. ↑,
73', Kossa-Rienzi K. ↓, Kim Kee-Hee ↑,
76', Nouhou 🟨,
77', 0 - 1, Elloumi R. ⚽, Sabbi E. (A),
82', 0 - 2, Muller T. ⚽, Larraz O. (A),
85', Roldan A. ↓, Gaffney C. ↑,
86', Sabbi E. ↓, Djordjevic N. ↑,
86', Rothrock P. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Seattle won 3.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

Seattle may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Vancouver is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Seattle: Dotson H. (Muscle Injury) Gomez Andrade Y. (Muscle Injury) Morris J. (Muscle Injury) Petkovic N. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Vancouver: Cabrera Nakamura K. G. (Foot Injury) Halbouni B. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Seattle: Arriola P. (Injury)

There are questionable in Vancouver: Caicedo B. (Injury) Veselinovic R. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Seattle won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 35:20. (average 1.8:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Seattle won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 22:10. (average 2:0.9).

Outrights of MLS for now

Vancouver Whitecaps: 13.17% Seattle Sounders: 1.94%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Seattle Sounders FC
CONCACAF League Cup
12.08.26	Seattle Sounders - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
09.08.26	Seattle Sounders - Querétaro	3:0 ✺
05.08.26	Toluca - Seattle Sounders	3:0 ✺
MLS
01.08.26	Portland Timbers - Seattle Sounders	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Philadelphia Union - Seattle Sounders	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.9 LWLLL
- Vancouver Whitecaps
CONCACAF League Cup
11.08.26	Tigres UANL - Vancouver Whitecaps	2:1 penalties ✺
07.08.26	Vancouver Whitecaps - Juárez	1:3 ✺
04.08.26	Vancouver Whitecaps - Atlante	0:1 ✺
MLS
01.08.26	Vancouver Whitecaps - Los Angeles	1:1 ✺
25.07.26	Minnesota United - Vancouver Whitecaps	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF Champions Cup
18.03.26	Seattle Sounders - Vancouver Whitecaps	2:1
12.03.26	Vancouver Whitecaps - Seattle Sounders	0:3
MLS
27.09.25	Seattle Sounders - Vancouver Whitecaps	2:2
08.06.25	Vancouver Whitecaps - Seattle Sounders	3:0
02.10.24	Vancouver Whitecaps - Seattle Sounders	0:3
18.05.24	Seattle Sounders - Vancouver Whitecaps	1:1
20.04.24	Seattle Sounders - Vancouver Whitecaps	0:2

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