Match Info

Parva liga - Relegation Group - Round 35

Date: 15 May 2025, Thursday

Location: National Stadium Vasil Levski (Sofia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 6
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Serbia	SportKlub 6
Slovenia	SportKlub 5


	Septemvri Sofia		Hebar Pazardzhik

	1	X	2
	1.42	4.5	7	Watch
	1.39	4.8	6.25
	1.39	4.8	6.6	Watch
	1.39	4.82	7.19
	1.4	4.92	6.88	Watch
	1.36	4.5	6.5
	1.39	4.9	7.32	Watch
	1.39	4.8	6.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↓ (1.5)	4.76 ↑ (4.2)	6.79 ↑ (5.74)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Septemvri Sofia
66.8%

Draw
19.5%

Hebar Pazardzhik
13.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.7%

22.1%

16.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

20.2%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Septemvri Sofia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Septemvri Sofia's performance.

Hebar Pazardzhik has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Septemvri Sofia than the current prediction. (-10.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Septemvri Sofia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hebar Pazardzhik than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	12.5%	12.5%

Septemvri Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Septemvri Sofia will win (votes: 6 - 75%). Hebar will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Septemvri Sofia: 45% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

AH -1.25 - Septemvri Sofia (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Hebar (2.67) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Hebar (5.04) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Septemvri Sofia will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Septemvri Sofia (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Hebar (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Sheytanov D. (G) 5. Polendakov M. 4. Hristov M. 26. Schenk X. 27. Varbanov G. 6. Ochayi V. 9. Chandarov A. (C) 7. Parra M. 33. Ivanov G. 16. Serber K. 11. Rupanov B.	97. Rosa M. (G) 44. Nikolaev N. 33. Tsonkov S. (C) 2. Pavlek D. 21. Penchev B. 14. Angelov Y. 98. Markelo N. 88. Rusinov I. 7. N'Zi J. 70. Dunnwald-Turan K. 55. Guermouche Y.
Substitutes
17. Amade A. 15. Fourrier B. 24. Gutierrez J. 12. Ivanov Vladimir (G) 19. Mitkov M. 8. Moran M. 18. Nikolov V. 13. Onasci K. 22. Vitinho	77. Cavar B. 10. Gigov N. 24. Ichev N. 99. Paskulov D. (G) 20. Petrovic M. 8. Tsoumou J. 9. Ushagelov T. 4. Velchev K. 11. Vukovic D.
Coaches
Mitov N.	Vutsov V.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
34', 1 - 0, Rupanov B. ⚽, Polendakov M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
60', Nikolaev N. 🟨,
68', Angelov Y. ↓, Velchev K. ↑,
68', Dunnwald-Turan K. ↓, Vukovic D. ↑,
75', Parra M. ↓, Amade A. ↑,
78', Rusinov I. ↓, Tsoumou J. ↑,
81', Rupanov B. ↓, Fourrier B. ↑,
82', Ivanov G. ↓, Onasci K. ↑,
85', Markelo N. ↓, Gigov N. ↑,
85', Penchev B. ↓, Ichev N. ↑,
90+1', Ochayi V. ↓, Moran M. ↑,
90+2', Serber K. ↓, Vitinho ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Septemvri Sofia won 3.

Septemvri Sofia has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Hebar is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Septemvri Sofia is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Septemvri Sofia won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 2.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Septemvri Sofia won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 13:6. (average 2.6:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Septemvri Sofia
Bulgarian Parva Liga
11.05.25	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Septemvri Sofia	2:0 ✺
06.05.25	Septemvri Sofia - Slavia Sofia	3:1 ✺
02.05.25	Botev Vratsa - Septemvri Sofia	3:2 ✺
28.04.25	Septemvri Sofia - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	2:0 ✺
21.04.25	Septemvri Sofia - Levski Sofia	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.5 LWLWL
- Hebar Pazardzhik
Bulgarian Parva Liga
11.05.25	Hebar Pazardzhik - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	1:2 ✺
07.05.25	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	0:0 ✺
01.05.25	Hebar Pazardzhik - Krumovgrad	1:3 ✺
25.04.25	Slavia Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	3:2 ✺
21.04.25	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 23.7 LTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
10.03.25	Septemvri Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	6:1
20.09.24	Hebar Pazardzhik - Septemvri Sofia	1:2
26.05.23	Hebar Pazardzhik - Septemvri Sofia	3:1
04.11.22	Septemvri Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:1
18.07.22	Hebar Pazardzhik - Septemvri Sofia	1:3
Bulgarian Vtora Liga
02.04.22	Septemvri Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	2:1
18.09.21	Hebar Pazardzhik - Septemvri Sofia	1:0

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