Match Info

Parva liga - Relegation Group - Round 32

Date: 1 May 2025, Thursday

Location: Stadion Georgi Benkovski (Pazardzhik)

Referee: Trenchev S. (Bul)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra
Croatia	SportKlub 6
Slovenia	SportKlub 6


	Hebar Pazardzhik		Krumovgrad

	1	X	2
	2.2	2.9	3.1	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.4
	2.34	3.1	3.05	Watch
	2.33	3.22	3.4
	2.36	3.17	3.07	Watch
	2.1	3.1	3.3
	2.43	3.03	3.06	Watch
	2.3	3.1	3.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↓ (2.96)	3.09 ↑ (3.01)	3.19 ↑ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Hebar Pazardzhik
40.9%

Draw
30%

Krumovgrad
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.4%

30.9%

37.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

30.1%

36.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Hebar Pazardzhik has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Hebar Pazardzhik's performance.

Krumovgrad has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Krumovgrad might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hebar Pazardzhik than the current prediction. (-8.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Hebar Pazardzhik that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Krumovgrad than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Krumovgrad could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	12.5%	37.5%

Hebar Pazardzhik - Krumovgrad Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Hebar will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Krumovgrad will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Hebar: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Krumovgrad (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Hebar (1.66) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Hebar (votes: 2 - 40%). Krumovgrad (votes: 3 - 60%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Kort I. (G) 44. Nikolaev N. 33. Tsonkov S. (C) 29. Zebic M. 20. Petrovic M. 98. Markelo N. 21. Penchev B. 77. N'Zi J. 11. Vukovic D. 9. Ushagelov T. 55. Guermouche Y.	1. Georgiev Y. (C) 14. Cova A. 25. Rabotov S. 5. Guinari P. 18. Sy S. 23. Fall M. 70. Veiga T. 22. Dost E. 10. Itu C. 7. Tsvetanov M. 27. Keita I.
Substitutes
14. Angelov Y. 19. Cavar B. 4. Drinov N. 70. Dunnwald-Turan K. 10. Ganev C. 15. Kondrakov D. 2. Metanov N. 7. Nassar Chouiter S. 99. Paskulov D. (G)	8. Gonzalez J. 13. Isuf A. 91. Ivanov H. 21. Makendzhiev B. (G) 19. Milev N. 44. Obissa S. 99. Sellouf A. 98. Tartov G. 9. Vasilev I.
Coaches
Vutsov V.	Kirilov R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
18', 0 - 1, Itu C. ⚽, Keita I. (A),
19', Keita I. 🟨,
20', Fall M. 🟨,
38', 0 - 2, Itu C. ⚽, Dost E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Ushagelov T. ↓, Dunnwald-Turan K. ↑,
60', Vukovic D. ↓, Kondrakov D. ↑,
63', Veiga T. ↓, Tartov G. ↑,
70', Petrovic M. ↓, Nassar Chouiter S. ↑,
75', Penchev B. ↓, Drinov N. ↑,
75', N'Zi J. ↓, Ganev C. ↑,
75', Dost E. ↓, Ivanov H. ↑,
79', 0 - 3, Guinari P. ⚽, Keita I. (A),
85', Guermouche Y. 🟨,
87', Itu C. 🟨,
88', 1 - 3, Dunnwald-Turan K. ⚽, Tsonkov S. (A),
90+2', Itu C. ↓, Milev N. ↑,

Preview

Hebar is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Krumovgrad is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games, wins - 2).

Hebar will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Krumovgrad: Alonso I. (Red Card) Marin L. (Yellow Cards)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Hebar won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4 (average 0.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams, Hebar won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0 (average 0:0).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Hebar Pazardzhik
Bulgarian Parva Liga
25.04.25	Slavia Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	3:2 ✺
21.04.25	CSKA 1948 Sofia - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:3 ✺
14.04.25	Hebar Pazardzhik - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:2 ✺
06.04.25	Krumovgrad - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:0 ✺
03.04.25	Hebar Pazardzhik - Lokomotiv Plovdiv	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.8 LWLLT
- FC Krumovgrad
Bulgarian Parva Liga
25.04.25	Lokomotiv Sofia - Krumovgrad	3:0 ✺
18.04.25	Krumovgrad - CSKA Sofia	1:0 ✺
11.04.25	Spartak Varna - Krumovgrad	1:0 ✺
06.04.25	Krumovgrad - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:0 ✺
03.04.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Krumovgrad	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25 LWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
06.04.25	Krumovgrad - Hebar Pazardzhik	1:0
26.10.24	Hebar Pazardzhik - Krumovgrad	0:0
03.04.24	Krumovgrad - Hebar Pazardzhik	3:2
02.10.23	Hebar Pazardzhik - Krumovgrad	0:0

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