Match Info

Campeonato de Portugal - Group D - Round 7

Date: 26 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Complexo Desportivo Manuel Baião (Serpa)


	Serpa		Portimonense B

	1	X	2
	1.82	3.5	3.55
	1.83	3.54	3.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↑ (1.55)	3.52 ↓ (3.6)	3.63 ↓ (5.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Serpa
49.5%

Draw
25.7%

Portimonense B
24.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

58.5%

25.2%

16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.3%

24%

15.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Serpa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Serpa's form might have worsened.

Portimonense B has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Portimonense B's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Serpa than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Serpa, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Portimonense B than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Portimonense B, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Serpa - Portimonense B Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
82', 1 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 and 10 in the zone Relegation).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Serpa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Serpa is considered a favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Serpa
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
05.10.25	Atlético da Malveira - Serpa	2:2 ✺
28.09.25	Serpa - Vasco da Gama Vidigueira	1:0 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Lusitano GC - Serpa	1:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.09.25	Moncarapachense - Serpa	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
31.08.25	Serpa - Portel	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 TWLTW
- Portimonense B
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Mortágua - Portimonense B	2:0 ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
05.10.25	Portimonense B - Alcochetense	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Oriental - Portimonense B	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Portimonense B - Penafiel	2:1 penalties ✺
Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
14.09.25	Portimonense B - Alverca B	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 LWLWL

Serpa - Portimonense B: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide