Match Info

PORTUGAL: Campeonato de Portugal - Group C - Round 9

Date: 10 November 2024, Sunday 🏁 Finished


	Sertanense		Arronches Benfica

	1	X	2
	2.4	2.95	2.7
	2.43	3.05	2.75
	2.52	2.81	2.88
	2.41	3.02	2.76
	2.43	3.05	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.44 ↓ (3.17)	2.98 ↓ (3.1)	2.77 ↑ (2.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 10%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sertanense
37%

Draw
30.3%

Arronches Benfica
32.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

28.7%

29.4%

41.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.6%

28.5%

40.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sertanense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sertanense's performance.

Arronches Benfica has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Arronches Benfica might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sertanense than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sertanense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Arronches Benfica than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Arronches Benfica could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sertanense - Arronches Benfica Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

This match will be held between outsider and one of leaders (ranked 14 in the zone Relegation and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Campeonato de Portugal ~ Promotion Group).

Sertanense has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Arronches Benfica is playing uncertain (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 1 head-to-head matches Sertanense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Including matches at home between the teams Sertanense won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sertanense
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
03.11.24	Elvas - Sertanense	1:0 ✺
27.10.24	Sertanense - Fatima	0:1 ✺
06.10.24	Pero Pinheiro - Sertanense	2:1 ✺
29.09.24	Sertanense - Alverca B	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.09.24	Alpendorada - Sertanense	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLTL
- Arronches Benfica
Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
03.11.24	Arronches Benfica - União de Coimbra	1:1 ✺
27.10.24	Marinhense - Arronches Benfica	2:1 ✺
06.10.24	Arronches Benfica - Peniche	1:0 ✺
29.09.24	SB Castelo Branco - Arronches Benfica	1:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
22.09.24	Arronches Benfica - Vila Real	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
15.01.23	Sertanense - Arronches Benfica	0:1

Sertanense - Arronches Benfica