Match Info

SPAIN: PRIMERA RFEF - GROUP 1 - ROUND 30

Date: 30 March 2024, Saturday


	Sestao		Rayo Majadahonda

	1	X	2
	1.8	3.2	4.5
	1.73	3.1	4.4
	1.87	3.25	4.2	Watch
	1.87	3.32	4.59
	1.83	3.32	4.6
	1.83	3.2	4.56
	1.78	3.2	4.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.82 ↓ (1.96)	3.23 ↑ (3)	4.46 ↑ (3.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sestao
50.8%

Draw
28.6%

Rayo Majadahonda
20.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.1%

30.1%

23.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.8%

24%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sestao has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Rayo Majadahonda has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sestao that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rayo Majadahonda than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rayo Majadahonda could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Sestao - Rayo Majadahonda Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Puig S. (G) 22. Etxeberria M. 5. Martinez G. (C) 6. Jaso Zunzarren A. 3. Mateo A. 8. Garai G. 15. Azkue J. 9. Cabo J. 21. Guruzeta J. 7. Aranzabe A. 17. Kaxe	13. Sarr C. (G) 2. Ceballos D. 15. Hermoso K. 3. Casado J. 17. Ro 6. Arnedo A. 21. Reguera F. 20. Garcia S. 14. Hervias P. 10. Perez P. 9. Cortes J.
Substitutes
2. Carbonell A. 19. Corbalan A. 23. Corral R. 18. Dopi 24. Garcia P. (G) 14. Gete A. 10. Martinez Ortiz L. 12. Mirapeix D. 20. Sanz I. 11. Uriarte K. 13. Zeberio U. (G)	23. Camacho S. 34. Dias J. 7. Enri R. 37. Exposito S. 1. Martin D. (G) 11. Martinez J. 12. Navarro S. 4. Suarez P. 18. Tavares R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Hermoso K. 🟨,
42', Ceballos D. ↓, Suarez P. ↑,
45', Reguera F. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
49', Azkue J. ↓, Gete A. ↑,
58', 0 - 1, Ro ⚽,
60', Cabo J. ↓, Martinez Ortiz L. ↑,
62', Hermoso K. 🟨,
70', Cortes J. 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Martinez Ortiz L. (Pen),
73', Perez P. ↓, Tavares R. ↑,
73', Hervias P. ↓, Dias J. ↑,
75', Gete A. 🟨,
79', Garai G. ↓, Sanz I. ↑,
79', Etxeberria M. ↓, Dopi ↑,
81', Garcia S. ↓, Navarro S. ↑,
81', Reguera F. ↓, Exposito S. ↑,
83', 2 - 1, Carbonell A. ⚽,
84', Sarr C. 🟥,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Recent matches Sestao is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Rayo Majadahonda is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Sestao is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Sestao won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4-2.

Including matches at home between the teams Sestao won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 1-0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sestao River
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
24.03.24	Lugo - Sestao	4:3 ✺
16.03.24	Sestao - SD Logroñés	2:0 ✺
09.03.24	Barcelona B - Sestao	2:1 ✺
03.03.24	Sestao - Sabadell	3:0 ✺
24.02.24	Celta de Vigo B - Sestao	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LWLWL
- CF Rayo Majadahonda
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
23.03.24	Rayo Majadahonda - Deportivo A Coruña	0:2 ✺
17.03.24	Arenteiro - Rayo Majadahonda	2:2 ✺
09.03.24	Rayo Majadahonda - Real Unión de Irun	1:1 ✺
02.03.24	Teruel - Rayo Majadahonda	1:0 ✺
24.02.24	Rayo Majadahonda - Cornellà	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
26.11.23	Rayo Majadahonda - Sestao	0:2
Spanish Segunda RFEF - Group 2
08.01.17	Rayo Majadahonda - Sestao	1:1
20.08.16	Sestao - Rayo Majadahonda	0:0
13.02.16	Sestao - Rayo Majadahonda	1:0
27.09.15	Rayo Majadahonda - Sestao	1:0

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