Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 24

Date: 16 February 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Anxo Carro (Lugo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV, TVG 2


	Lugo		Sestao

	1	X	2
	1.9	2.88	4.33
	1.96	2.85	3.95
	2	2.97	4.42
	1.93	2.99	4.23	Watch
	1.97	2.97	4.48
	1.96	2.85	3.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.26)	2.92 ↑ (2.89)	4.23 ↑ (3.18)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lugo
46.9%

Draw
31.4%

Sestao
21.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.1%

31.4%

28.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.9%

30.1%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lugo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lugo's performance.

Sestao has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Sestao might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lugo than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sestao than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Sestao could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Lugo - Sestao Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lavin M. (G) 2. Lizancos A. 23. Rodriguez J. 4. Ruiz E. 3. Zoilo A. 10. Cabo J. 8. Gonzalez Y. 24. Martinez R. 7. Hernandez R. 15. Reniero N. 17. Ochoa M.	13. Herrerin I. (G) 2. Alvarez J. 5. Martinez G. 23. Efremov A. 19. Rojo J. 6. Gomez A. 8. Garai G. 17. Samperio J. 15. Bustillo M. 14. Garcia S. 11. Etxaniz J.
Substitutes
. Afriyie J. 13. Cacharron P. (G) 18. Gonzalez J. 9. Mendoza B. 33. Pereira P. 11. Perero G. 20. Sanchez M. 22. Vaquero 14. Vidal D.	9. Aznar D. 12. Barandalla M. 18. Cordoba A. 22. Etxeberria M. 1. Garrido J. (G) 10. Martinez Ortiz L. 21. Miranda A. 7. Planas A. 4. Relu

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Zoilo A. ⚽,
31', Samperio J. ↓, Cordoba A. ↑,
37', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
50', Alvarez J. 🟨,
60', 1 - 1, Garai G. ⚽,
65', Ochoa M. ↓, Perero G. ↑,
72', Etxaniz J. ↓, Martinez Ortiz L. ↑,
72', Alvarez J. ↓, Etxeberria M. ↑,
72', Bustillo M. ↓, Relu ↑,
76', 🟨,
78', Martinez G. ↓, Miranda A. ↑,
78', 2 - 1, Cabo J. ⚽,
81', Reniero N. ↓, Gonzalez J. ↑,
90', Hernandez R. ↓, Vaquero ↑,
90', Martinez R. ↓, Pereira P. ↑,
90+3', Garcia S. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 15 and 17 in the zone Relegation).

Lugo is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Sestao is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Sestao could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Lugo is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Lugo won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:6 (average 1.4:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Lugo won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 4:4 (average 2:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Lugo
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
09.02.25	FC Andorra - Lugo	2:0 ✺
02.02.25	Lugo - Osasuna B	3:1 ✺
19.01.25	Lugo - Leonesa	1:4 ✺
11.01.25	Ourense CF - Lugo	2:1 ✺
22.12.24	Gimnástica Segoviana - Lugo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2 LWLLL
- Sestao River
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.02.25	Sestao - Zamora	1:1 ✺
01.02.25	Sestao - Leonesa	1:1 ✺
25.01.25	Athletic Bilbao B - Sestao	2:0 ✺
17.01.25	Sestao - Real Unión de Irun	0:1 ✺
11.01.25	Ponferradina - Sestao	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Copa Federacion
02.10.24	Lugo - Sestao	0:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
08.09.24	Sestao - Lugo	0:1
24.03.24	Lugo - Sestao	4:3
02.12.23	Sestao - Lugo	0:1
Spanish Copa del Rey
18.12.19	Sestao - Lugo	2:1 penalties

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