Match Info

First League - Round 10

Date: 19 June 2026, Friday


	Shakhter Karagandy		Jaiyq

	1	X	2
	1.12	7.50	14.50
	1.13	6.70	12.50
	1.13	9.18	14.06
	1.35	4.14	8.89	Watch
	1.10	7.60	14.70
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.17 ↓ (1.34)	7.02 ↑ (4.17)	12.93 ↑ (9.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shakhter Karagandy
79.6%

Draw
13.2%

Jaiyq
7.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

68.3%

21.9%

9.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.1%

21%

9.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shakhter Karagandy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Shakhter Karagandy's performance.

Jaiyq has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shakhter Karagandy than the current prediction. (-8.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Shakhter Karagandy that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jaiyq than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Migunov A. ⚽, Vasilchenko D. (A),
36', 2 - 0, Ulshin A. ⚽, Litosh A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
83', 3 - 0, Litosh A. ⚽, Nazarov D. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League and 7).

Shakhter Karagandy is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Jaiyq has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Shakhter Karagandy may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Shakhter Karagandy is the clear favorite.

We predict that Shakhter Karagandy will win today's game, with odds of 1.3.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Shakhter Karagandy ✔	23	20	2	1	64:8	56	62
6	Jaiyq	23	9	4	10	21:26	-5	31

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shakhter Karagandy
Kazakh First League
12.06.26	Khan Tengri - Shakhter Karagandy	0:2 ✺
26.05.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Yelimay 2	1:0 ✺
21.05.26	Astana 2 - Shakhter Karagandy	4:3 ✺
15.05.26	Shakhter Karagandy - Aktobe 2	7:0 ✺
07.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Shakhter Karagandy	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WWLWW
- FC Jaiyq
Kazakh First League
11.06.26	Yelimay 2 - Jaiyq	0:1 ✺
27.05.26	Jaiyq - Aktobe 2	3:2 ✺
22.05.26	Kaspiy Aktau 2 - Jaiyq	0:1 ✺
15.05.26	Jaiyq - Batyr Ekibastuz	0:1 ✺
08.05.26	Taraz - Jaiyq	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWLL

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