Match Info

Premier Division - Round 30

Date: 14 September 2026, Monday

Location: Tolka Park (Dublin)

Referee: O'Dowd A. (Irl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	LOI TV


	Shelbourne		Drogheda United

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	3.9	Watch
	2.00	3.40	3.25
	1.85	3.35	3.9
	1.97	3.59	4.13
	1.91	3.6	3.99	Watch
	1.83	3.25	3.75
	1.87	3.5	4.04	Watch
	1.85	3.35	3.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.77)	3.42 ↓ (3.68)	3.85 ↓ (4.29)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shelbourne
48.9%

Draw
27.1%

Drogheda United
24%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.9%

25.4%

21.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.2%

24.8%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shelbourne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Drogheda United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shelbourne than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Shelbourne, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Drogheda United than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	50%	0%

Shelbourne - Drogheda United Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Shelbourne will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Beach E. (G) 25. Mbeng M. 16. Casey O. 4. Ledwidge K. 18. Norris J. 21. Henry-Francis J. 23. McInroy K. (C) 22. Moore S. 27. Caffrey E. 17. Kelly D. 9. Boyd S.	1. Dennison L. (G) 4. Quinn A. 22. Keeley C. (C) 5. Burney L. 2. Agbaje E. 15. Bates A. 10. Kavanagh B. 8. O'Brien E. 3. Kane C. 24. Davis W. 11. Oluwa T.
Substitutes
14. Coote A. 20. Freitas R. 2. Gannon S. 36. Jarvis W. 6. Lunney J. 11. Odubeko M. 44. Ring D. 55. Roche J. 31. Walsh C. (G)	29. Brennan J. 19. Brennan R. 31. Cruise K. 14. Doyle M. 17. Farrell S. 32. Mare D. 25. Markey R. 33. McGrath S. 44. Talley F. (G)
Coaches
Russell J.	Doherty K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', Boyd S. ↓, Freitas R. ↑,
22', 1 - 0, Kelly D. ⚽, Moore S. (A),
40', 1 - 1, Davis W. ⚽, O'Brien E. (A),
44', McInroy K. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 1 - 2, Burney L. ⚽, Kavanagh B. (A),
61', Caffrey E. ↓, Coote A. ↑,
61', Freitas R. ↓, Odubeko M. ↑,
68', Kavanagh B. ↓, Farrell S. ↑,
68', Oluwa T. ↓, Doyle M. ↑,
68', Bates A. 🟨,
69', Moore S. ↓, Jarvis W. ↑,
79', Davis W. ↓, Markey R. ↑,
80', Coote A. 🟨,
83', Jarvis W. 🟨,
89', Bates A. ↓, Brennan R. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shelbourne won 1.

Shelbourne is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Drogheda United's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Drogheda United has had a series of home games.

In this match, Shelbourne is considered a favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shelbourne won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 36:25. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Shelbourne won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:9. (average 1.8:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Shelbourne	33	10	13	10	47:46	1	43
9	Drogheda	33	8	10	15	39:54	-15	34

Last Results with these Odds

Shelbourne - the odds 1.77 are the expected chance of winning is 52.86%, but this team recently wins 38% of matches with these odds.

Drogheda United - the odds 4.29 are the expected chance of winning is 21.75%, but this team recently wins 0% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shelbourne
Irish Premier Division
11.09.26	Shelbourne - Derry City	0:1 ✺
04.09.26	Shamrock Rovers - Shelbourne	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	Galway United - Shelbourne	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Shelbourne - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Irish Premier Division
09.08.26	Shelbourne - St Patricks Athletic	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 LTTTL
- Drogheda United
Irish Premier Division
11.09.26	Drogheda United - Sligo Rovers	2:0 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
04.09.26	Drogheda United - Galway United	1:2 ✺
Irish Premier Division
28.08.26	Drogheda United - Dundalk	2:3 ✺
21.08.26	Drogheda United - St Patricks Athletic	0:2 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
15.08.26	College Corinthians - Drogheda United	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Irish Premier Division
19.06.26	Drogheda United - Shelbourne	2:2
24.04.26	Shelbourne - Drogheda United	3:4
27.02.26	Drogheda United - Shelbourne	1:2
22.09.25	Drogheda United - Shelbourne	2:1
19.05.25	Shelbourne - Drogheda United	0:0
18.04.25	Drogheda United - Shelbourne	2:2
07.03.25	Shelbourne - Drogheda United	0:1

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