Match Info

Premier Division - Round 31

Date: 11 September 2026, Friday

Location: Tolka Park (Dublin)

Referee: McGraith D. (Irl)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	SportsEngine Play
World	LOI TV


	Shelbourne		Derry City

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.3	3	Watch
	2.30	3.20	2.80
	2.28	3.2	2.95
	2.33	3.55	3.15
	2.3	3.41	3.09	Watch
	2.25	3.5	3
	2.3	3.26	3.06	Watch
	2.25	3.2	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.28 ↓ (2.32)	3.33 ↓ (3.52)	2.99 ↑ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shelbourne
40.8%

Draw
28%

Derry City
31.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.7%

26.8%

32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

27.8%

31.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shelbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Derry City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shelbourne than the current prediction. (+1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Derry City than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
57.1%	42.9%	0%

Shelbourne - Derry City Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Shelbourne will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

New Consensus by Tipsters:

1X2 - Tie (3.30) (votes: 78%) ⭐ Best Value.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
19. Beach E. (G) 25. Mbeng M. 16. Casey O. 4. Ledwidge K. 18. Norris J. 6. Lunney J. 23. McInroy K. (C) 27. Caffrey E. 14. Coote A. 17. Kelly D. 11. Odubeko M.	13. Norcott T. (G) 23. Dummigan C. 4. Stott J. 3. McClean P. 8. O'Reilly A. 17. Twisk N. 14. Chapman E. 19. Fleming B. 12. Burns D. 29. Smith T. 7. Duffy M. (C)
Substitutes
9. Boyd S. 20. Freitas R. 2. Gannon S. 21. Henry-Francis J. 36. Jarvis W. 13. Johnson M. (G) 22. Moore S. 44. Ring D. 55. Roche J.	22. Barr C. 27. Boyce L. 15. Clarke J. 25. Grogan C. 24. Lyons-Foster B. 1. Maher B. (G) 28. Olayinka J. 21. Santos K. 11. Whyte G.
Coaches
Russell J.	Connolly M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
27', Casey O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
50', Lunney J. 🟨,
57', Odubeko M. ↓, Boyd S. ↑,
57', Coote A. ↓, Moore S. ↑,
58', Lunney J. ↓, Henry-Francis J. ↑,
59', Burns D. ↓, Clarke J. ↑,
59', Smith T. ↓, Boyce L. ↑,
65', O'Reilly A. 🟨,
69', Boyce L. 🟨,
72', Chapman E. ↓, Santos K. ↑,
76', Caffrey E. ↓, Freitas R. ↑,
83', Twisk N. 🟨,
83', Mbeng M. ↓, Gannon S. ↑,
90+3', 0 - 1, Duffy M. ⚽, Clarke J. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Shelbourne won 1.

Shelbourne is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Derry is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Shelbourne: Bone S. (Inactive) Martin J. (Knock)

There will not play in Derry: Markey D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Derry: McClean J. (Inactive) Winchester C. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Shelbourne won 4 matches, drew 9 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 13:20. (average 0.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Shelbourne won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:7. (average 0.6:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Derry City	32	9	14	9	45:42	3	41
6	Shelbourne	32	9	13	10	42:45	-3	40

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shelbourne
Irish Premier Division
04.09.26	Shamrock Rovers - Shelbourne	0:0 ✺
28.08.26	Galway United - Shelbourne	1:1 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
13.08.26	Shelbourne - Ajax	2:2 ✺
Irish Premier Division
09.08.26	Shelbourne - St Patricks Athletic	1:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Ajax - Shelbourne	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 TTTLL
- Derry City
Irish FAI Cup
06.09.26	Derry City - Dundalk	4:2 ✺
Irish Premier Division
30.08.26	Derry City - Shamrock Rovers	3:3 ✺
21.08.26	Bohemians Dublin - Derry City	5:3 ✺
Irish FAI Cup
14.08.26	University College Dublin - Derry City	1:2 ✺
Irish Premier Division
07.08.26	Derry City - Sligo Rovers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 WTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Irish Premier Division
25.05.26	Derry City - Shelbourne	0:0
17.04.26	Shelbourne - Derry City	1:2
13.03.26	Derry City - Shelbourne	1:2
19.09.25	Derry City - Shelbourne	1:1
20.06.25	Shelbourne - Derry City	0:1
02.05.25	Derry City - Shelbourne	2:0
14.02.25	Shelbourne - Derry City	3:1

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