Match Info

Chance Liga - 7th-10th places - Final

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Andruv stadion (Olomouc)

Referee: Vokoun D. (Cze)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1, Oneplay Sport 3
Slovakia	Voyo


	Sigma Olomouc		Karviná

	1	X	2
	1.5	3.9	5.5	Watch
	1.53	4.53	5.78
	1.53	4.28	5.43	Watch
	1.53	4	5
	1.5	4.35	5.64	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.52 ↓ (1.98)	4.21 ↑ (3.44)	5.47 ↑ (3.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sigma Olomouc
61.1%

Draw
22%

Karviná
16.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.2%

27.2%

25.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.5%

26.5%

25%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sigma Olomouc has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sigma Olomouc's performance.

Karviná has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Karviná might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sigma Olomouc than the current prediction. (-12.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sigma Olomouc that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karviná than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Karviná could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	28.6%	0%

Sigma Olomouc - Karviná Predictions

Users Predictions: Sigma Olomouc will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Stoppen T. (G) 2. Sylla A. 21. Kral J. (C) 3. Lurvink L. 22. Hadas M. 47. Beran M. 88. Barath P. 39. Janosek D. 7. Sturm D. 10. Sejk V. 23. Krivak F.	30. Lapes J. (G) 3. Lawali Y. 99. Prebsl F. (C) 49. Camara S. 19. Milic N. 8. Kristan J. 4. Traore A. 31. Conde O. 29. Fiala J. 24. Chytry J. 26. Ezeh L.
Substitutes
77. Dolznikov A. 70. Ghali A. 20. Grgic D. 98. Hruska M. (G) 19. Jezierski J. 25. Mikulenka M. 15. Palan R. 14. Rusek A. 6. Sip J. 13. Slama J. 16. Slavicek F.	14. Ayaosi E. 25. Fleisman J. 11. Kacor P. 20. Kahuan Vinicius 9. Labik A. 34. Mrozek O. (G) 1. Neuman V. (G) 10. Samko D. 44. Skyba Y. 28. Valosek V.
Coaches
Hapal P.	Jarolim M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
26', 1 - 0, Sturm D. ⚽, Barath P. (A),
29', 2 - 0, Barath P. ⚽, Sylla A. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Sturm D. ↓, Rusek A. ↑,
46', Krivak F. ↓, Ghali A. ↑,
46', Traore A. ↓, Valosek V. ↑,
46', Ezeh L. ↓, Samko D. ↑,
60', 3 - 0, Rusek A. ⚽,
64', Chytry J. ↓, Ayaosi E. ↑,
68', Fiala J. 🟨,
71', Hadas M. ↓, Slavicek F. ↑,
71', Janosek D. ↓, Mikulenka M. ↑,
71', Sejk V. ↓, Palan R. ↑,
81', Lawali Y. ↓, Fleisman J. ↑,
82', 4 - 0, Lurvink L. ⚽, Beran M. (A),
84', Jarolim M. 🟨,
90+1', Conde O. ↓, Kacor P. ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 3-1.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sigma won 1.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Karviná may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sigma is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Sigma: Dembe J. (Knee Injury) Elbel J. (Suspended) Kliment J. (Surgery) Tkac D. (Muscle Injury) Urica F. (Knee Injury) Yasser M. (Injury)

There will not play in Karviná: Sigut S. (Suspended) Storman R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Sigma: Maly M. (Inactive) Slavicek F. (Inactive) Spacil J. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sigma won 11 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 40:23. (average 2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Sigma won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:12. (average 2.1:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Sigma Olomouc	9	5	1	3	16:13	3	16

Last Results with these Odds

Karviná - the odds 3.64 are the expected chance of winning is 25.66%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sigma Olomouc
Czech 1 Liga
16.05.26	Karviná - Sigma Olomouc	1:3 ✺
10.05.26	Sigma Olomouc - Bohemians 1905	1:2 ET ✺
02.05.26	Bohemians 1905 - Sigma Olomouc	1:3 ✺
25.04.26	Slavia Prague - Sigma Olomouc	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Sigma Olomouc - Slovácko	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WLWLW
- MFK Karviná
Czech Cup
20.05.26	Jablonec - Karviná	1:3 ✺
Czech 1 Liga
16.05.26	Karviná - Sigma Olomouc	1:3 ✺
10.05.26	Pardubice - Karviná	1:3 ET ✺
02.05.26	Karviná - Pardubice	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Karviná - Mladá Boleslav	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

Czech 1 Liga
16.05.26	Karviná - Sigma Olomouc	1:3
15.03.26	Sigma Olomouc - Karviná	2:2
18.10.25	Karviná - Sigma Olomouc	1:1
05.04.25	Sigma Olomouc - Karviná	1:2
02.11.24	Karviná - Sigma Olomouc	2:1
25.11.23	Karviná - Sigma Olomouc	0:2
29.07.23	Sigma Olomouc - Karviná	3:1

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