Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Relegation Group - Round 5

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday

Location: Daio Wasabi Stayen (Sint-Truiden)

Referee: Visser L. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	DAZN 1, DAZN Pro League 1, Play Sports 1
Japan	DAZN Japan
Netherlands	Sporza


	Sint-Truidense		Beerschot Wilrijk

	1	X	2
	1.44	5	5.75	Watch
	1.47	4.6	6.25
	1.43	4.85	6.3
	1.44	5.09	6.64
	1.45	4.99	6.35
	1.44	4.4	6
	1.44	5.08	6.39	Watch
	1.43	4.85	6.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.44 ↓ (1.54)	4.86 ↑ (4.48)	6.25 ↑ (5.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sint-Truidense
65.5%

Draw
19.4%

Beerschot Wilrijk
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

61.4%

21.1%

17.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

15.9%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sint-Truidense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Beerschot Wilrijk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sint-Truidense than the current prediction. (-19.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sint-Truidense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Beerschot Wilrijk than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Beerschot Wilrijk could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
78.6%	0%	21.4%

Sint Truidense - Beerschot Wilrijk Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sint-Truidense (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.25 - Sint-Truidense (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sint-Truidense will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%).
Confidence interval (95%): 65.01% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sint-Truidense (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Kokubo L. (G) 20. Van Helden R. 26. Musliu V. 2. Ogawa R. 60. Vanwesemael R. 13. Ito R. 8. Fujita J. 94. Lapoussin L. 19. Patris L. 91. Bertaccini A. 9. Ferrari A.	13. Doucoure E. (G) 4. Plat B. 66. Tolis 5. Mbe Soh L. 11. van der Kust D. 8. Henderson E. 20. Sahabo H. 16. Al Ghamdi F. 77. van La Parra R. 17. Al Sahafi M. 25. Colassin A.
Substitutes
7. Brahimi B. 12. Coppens J. (G) 14. Dumont O. 31. Godeau B. 22. Janssens W. 18. Jukleroed S. 41. Komori H. 10. Lamkel Ze D. 15. Zahiroleslam K.	47. Cagro W. 30. Huiberts D. 24. Joosen X. 9. Kosiah A. 71. Matijas D. (G) 55. Nzouango F. 3. Ortakaya E. 7. Reyners T. 26. Tshimanga D.
Coaches
Vrancken W.	Kuyt D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
39', 1 - 0, Bertaccini A. ⚽, Vanwesemael R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', van der Kust D. ↓, Tshimanga D. ↑,
69', 2 - 0, Bertaccini A. ⚽, Patris L. (A),
77', Colassin A. ↓, Reyners T. ↑,
77', Al Sahafi M. ↓, Kosiah A. ↑,
83', Vanwesemael R. ↓, Brahimi B. ↑,
83', Al Ghamdi F. ↓, Cagro W. ↑,
83', Sahabo H. ↓, Huiberts D. ↑,
87', 2 - 1, Cagro W. (Pen),
89', Bertaccini A. ↓, Komori H. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sint-Truidense won 5.

In recent matches, Sint-Truidense has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Beerschot Wilrijk is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Sint-Truidense is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Sint-Truidense: Belaid Z. (Inactive) Taniguchi S. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Yamamoto R. (Red Card)

There will not play in Beerschot Wilrijk: Fayed O. (Injury) Sanusi R. (Surgery)

There are questionable in Sint-Truidense: Delpupo I. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Sint-Truidense won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 27:16. (average 1.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Sint-Truidense won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 14:8. (average 2:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sint-Truidense VV
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
26.04.25	Cercle Brugge - Sint-Truidense	3:1 ✺
12.04.25	Sint-Truidense - Cercle Brugge	3:1 ✺
06.04.25	Sint-Truidense - Kortrijk	0:3 ✺
29.03.25	Beerschot Wilrijk - Sint-Truidense	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Sint-Truidense	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWLWL
- FCO Beerschot Wilrijk
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
25.04.25	Beerschot Wilrijk - Kortrijk	2:0 ✺
12.04.25	Kortrijk - Beerschot Wilrijk	3:2 ✺
05.04.25	Cercle Brugge - Beerschot Wilrijk	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Beerschot Wilrijk - Sint-Truidense	0:1 ✺
16.03.25	Beerschot Wilrijk - Westerlo	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
29.03.25	Beerschot Wilrijk - Sint-Truidense	0:1
07.03.25	Sint-Truidense - Beerschot Wilrijk	2:0
21.09.24	Beerschot Wilrijk - Sint-Truidense	0:1
20.03.22	Sint-Truidense - Beerschot Wilrijk	3:2
13.09.21	Beerschot Wilrijk - Sint-Truidense	0:1
30.12.20	Sint-Truidense - Beerschot Wilrijk	1:0
17.10.20	Beerschot Wilrijk - Sint-Truidense	6:3

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