Match Info

Jupiler Pro League - Round 21

Date: 18 January 2026, Sunday

Location: Daio Wasabi Stayen (Sint-Truiden)

Referee: Ledda M. (Bel)

Where to Watch on TV:


Belgium	Play Sports 1, Sporza, Sporza
Japan	DAZN Japan
Portugal	DAZN / App


	Sint-Truidense		Oud-Heverlee Leuven

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.5	4.5	Watch
	1.78	3.5	4.6	Watch
	1.75	3.59	4.92	Watch
	1.75	3.3	4.6
	1.76	3.6	4.96	Watch
	1.75	3.4	5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.76)	3.48 ↓ (3.61)	4.76 ↑ (4.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sint-Truidense
53.4%

Draw
26.9%

Oud-Heverlee Leuven
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53%

25.9%

21.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54%

25.4%

20.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sint-Truidense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Oud-Heverlee Leuven has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sint-Truidense than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Oud-Heverlee Leuven than the current prediction. (+1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.5%	17.6%	5.9%

Sint Truidense - Oud Heverlee Leuven Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - Leuven (1.81) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sint-Truidense will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sint-Truidense will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sint-Truidense (votes: 3 - 75%). Leuven (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
16. Kokubo L. (G) 20. Van Helden R. 5. Taniguchi S. 26. Musliu V. (C) 60. Vanwesemael R. 14. Merlen R. 6. Yamamoto R. 10. Sebaoui I. 13. Ito R. 7. Muja A. 42. Goto K.	1. Leysen T. (G) 28. Pletinckx E. 3. Dussenne N. 34. Nyakossi R. 27. Gil O. 4. Verstraete B. 6. George W. 7. Verlinden T. 33. Maertens M. (C) 39. Kaba S. 10. Maziz Y.
Substitutes
11. Delpupo I. 33. Diriken A. 9. Ferrari A. 3. Hata T. 22. Janssens W. 18. Jukleroed S. 21. Lendfers M. (G) 38. Matsuzawa K. 8. Sissako A.	30. Akimoto T. 19. Ikwuemesi C. 61. Jochmans O. (G) 24. Lakomy L. 5. Ominami T. 8. Schrijvers S. 14. Teklab H. 9. Traore A. K. 77. Vlietinck T.
Coaches
Vrancken W.	Mazzu F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
9', 1 - 0, Sebaoui I. ⚽,
21', Maziz Y. 🟨,
34', Maertens M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', George W. ↓, Lakomy L. ↑,
46', Maertens M. ↓, Ikwuemesi C. ↑,
57', Verstraete B. 🟨,
75', Merlen R. 🟨,
80', Merlen R. ↓, Sissako A. ↑,
80', Muja A. ↓, Hata T. ↑,
80', Verstraete B. ↓, Akimoto T. ↑,
81', Verlinden T. ↓, Traore A. K. ↑,
81', Dussenne N. ↓, Schrijvers S. ↑,
84', Goto K. ↓, Ferrari A. ↑,
85', Kokubo L. 🟨,
86', Akimoto T. 🟨,
90+2', Ikwuemesi C. 🟨,
90+3', Yamamoto R. 🟨,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Jupiler Pro League (Championship Group: ) and 14 in the zone Jupiler Pro League (Relegation Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sint-Truidense won 2.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Leuven may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Sint-Truidense is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Leuven: Vlietinck T. (Hamstring Injury)

There are questionable in Leuven: Akimoto T. (Injury) Kayo B. (Knock) Souanga C. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sint-Truidense won 7 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 30:34. (average 1.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Sint-Truidense won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:8. (average 1.9:0.9).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	St. Truiden	7	2	2	3	12:12	0	8
14	Leuven	7	1	1	5	5:13	-8	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sint-Truidense VV
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
26.12.25	Standard Liège - Sint-Truidense	1:2 ✺
21.12.25	Sint-Truidense - KV Mechelen	1:0 ✺
13.12.25	Anderlecht - Sint-Truidense	2:1 ✺
06.12.25	Sint-Truidense - Club Brugge	3:2 ✺
Belgian Cup
03.12.25	Royal Antwerp - Sint-Truidense	4:3 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.7 WWLWL
- Oud-Heverlee Leuven
Club Friendly
08.01.26	Preußen Münster - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:1 ✺
Belgian Jupiler Pro League
27.12.25	RAAL La Louvière - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	0:0 ✺
21.12.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Cercle Brugge	0:2 ✺
12.12.25	Standard Liège - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	0:1 ✺
07.12.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Zulte Waregem	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LTLWT

Latest Head to Head

Belgian Jupiler Pro League
23.11.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Sint-Truidense	1:2
16.03.25	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Sint-Truidense	3:2
15.09.24	Sint-Truidense - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	2:1
17.05.24	Sint-Truidense - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:1
20.04.24	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Sint-Truidense	1:0
09.12.23	Sint-Truidense - Oud-Heverlee Leuven	1:1
22.10.23	Oud-Heverlee Leuven - Sint-Truidense	4:0

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