Match Info

1. Liga - Round 20

Date: 12 September 2026, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Latvia	Futbols TV


	Smiltene		Riga Mariners

	1	X	2
	11.50	7.25	1.15
	18	7.5	1.06
	15.08	9.08	1.07
	18.39	7.81	1.1	Watch
	18	8	1.03
	21	12.8	1.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	17 ↑ (7.9)	8.74 ↑ (6.6)	1.08 ↓ (1.23)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.50

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Smiltene
5.3%

Draw
10.4%

Riga Mariners
84.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.6%

13.9%

74.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Smiltene has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Smiltene's form might have worsened.

Riga Mariners has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Riga Mariners's recent form is better than expected.

Smiltene - Riga Mariners Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
8', 1 - 0, Hills M. ⚽,
24', 2 - 0, Gaismins V. (Penalty Awarded),
42', 2 - 1, Grazis A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
57', 3 - 1, Gaismins V. ⚽,
68', 4 - 1, Hills M. ⚽,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 13 in the zone Relegation and 4).

Riga Mariners is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Riga Mariners may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Riga Mariners is the clear favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Smiltene won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 2:7. (average 0.7:2.3).

Including home match between the teams, Smiltene won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Riga Mariners	21	14	5	2	50:23	27	47
11	FK Smiltene	21	4	4	13	29:57	-28	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FK Smiltene BJSS
Latvian 1 Liga
05.09.26	JDFS Alberts - Smiltene	3:2 ✺
02.08.26	JFK Ventspils - Smiltene	1:2 ✺
25.07.26	Smiltene - Rīgas FS 2	3:5 ✺
19.07.26	Smiltene - Rēzekne	1:0 ✺
04.07.26	Mārupe - Smiltene	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 LWLWL
- Riga Mariners
Latvian 1 Liga
05.09.26	Riga Mariners - Rēzekne	5:0 ✺
29.08.26	Riga Mariners - Rīgas FS 2	3:1 ✺
24.08.26	Riga 2 - Riga Mariners	1:3 ✺
31.07.26	Super Nova 2 - Riga Mariners	0:3 ✺
25.07.26	Riga Mariners - JFK Ventspils	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WWWWT

Latest Head to Head

Latvian 1 Liga
09.05.26	Riga Mariners - Smiltene	1:0
25.10.25	Smiltene - Riga Mariners	1:3
28.06.25	Riga Mariners - Smiltene	3:1

Smiltene - Riga Mariners: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide