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Current Win Probability
Sogdiana Jizzakh 38.4%
Draw 26%
AGMK 35.6%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
35%
25.8%
39.2%
Our Initial ML Estimation
36.6%
24.7%
37.5%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sogdiana Jizzakh has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)
AGMK has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.6%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sogdiana Jizzakh than the current prediction. (-1.8%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for AGMK than the current prediction. (+1.9%)
Sogdiana Jizzakh - AGMK Predictions
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
27. Mitrovic M. (G) 22. Abdurashidov A. 3. Kobilov I. 13. Ivanovic F. 4. Dzhumatov B. 8. Boltaboev J. 32. Soyibov N. 6. Askarov B. 10. Kakhramonov J. 28. Mavlonkulov S. 14. Doriev L. (C)
23. Abdunabiev K. (G) 3. Toirov S. 8. Turdialiev A. 6. Ulmasaliev A. 19. Mukimzhonov A. 88. Haghnazari S. 5. Papava G. (C) 4. Kosimov M. 17. Abdurazzakov N. 9. Kholmurodov A. 77. Pesic I.
Substitutes
2. Dzhuraboev Z. 18. Golban I. 7. Micin P. 74. Nadzhafaliev B. (G) 77. Nurmatov O. 20. Omonkeldiev F. 33. Sultonmurodov S. 19. Urinboev Z. 9. Zajmovic D.
11. Abdurakhmonov A. 22. Akhrorov S. 35. Ilyosov J. (G) 44. Karimov A. 27. Kojic U. 30. Sarimsakov A. 28. Sentoku A. 10. Sobirzhonov A. 21. Tursunkulov K.
Coaches
Bakaev U.
Kasymov M.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 0)
25', 1 - 0, Ivanovic F. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Pesic I. ↓, Sobirzhonov A. ↑,
46', Kosimov M. ↓, Sentoku A. ↑,
46', Toirov S. ↓, Karimov A. ↑,
61', 🟨,
83', 1 - 1, Papava G. ⚽,
87', 1 - 2, ⚽,
89', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+4', 🟨,
90+5', 🟨,
Preview
An intriguing matchup between a mid-ranked team and a top contender (ranked 10th and 6th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sogdiana won 1.
Sogdiana arrives with excellent momentum after picking up several victories (last 5 matches: 4 wins).
AGMK has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
AGMK may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
Recently, AGMK has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.
The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Sogdiana has recorded 5 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, with a goal aggregate of 26:31 (averaging 1.3:1.6 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Sogdiana against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, with 10:10 goals (averaging 1.1:1.1 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
5
OKMK
22
10
5
7
31:29
2
35
11
Sogdiana
22
8
4
10
38:43
-5
28
Last Results with these Odds
Sogdiana Jizzakh - the odds 2.63 are the expected chance of winning is 34.99%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.
AGMK - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.16%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.