Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 1 - Round 16

Date: 11 January 2026, Sunday


	Somozas		Barco

	1	X	2
	2.05	3	3.35
	1.99	3.19	3.76	Watch
	2	3	3.4
	2	3.1	3.58
	1.96	3.2	3.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↑ (1.83)	3.1 ↓ (3.15)	3.54 ↓ (4.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Somozas
45.2%

Draw
29.2%

Barco
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

29%

21.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.3%

25.2%

24.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Somozas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.6%)

Barco has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Somozas than the current prediction. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Barco than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Somozas - Barco Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+2', 1 - 0, Cambon J. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Somozas won 1.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

In this match, Somozas is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Somozas won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:18. (average 1.3:2.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Somozas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:10. (average 1.3:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Barco	5	3	1	1	6:4	2	10
13	Somozas	5	1	2	2	3:4	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UD Somozas
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
20.12.25	Compostela - Somozas	3:0 ✺
14.12.25	Somozas - Estradense	2:1 ✺
07.12.25	Viveiro - Somozas	1:0 ✺
22.11.25	Montañeros - Somozas	1:0 ✺
16.11.25	Somozas - Arosa	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWLLT
- CD Barco
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
21.12.25	Barco - Montañeros	0:1 ✺
14.12.25	Arosa - Barco	2:0 ✺
07.12.25	Barco - Atlético Arteixo	0:3 ✺
23.11.25	Noia - Barco	1:1 ✺
16.11.25	Barco - RC Villalbes	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 1
26.03.23	Somozas - Barco	2:1
04.12.22	Barco - Somozas	0:0
01.05.22	Somozas - Barco	2:3
14.04.22	Barco - Somozas	3:1
08.12.21	Somozas - Barco	0:2
09.02.20	Somozas - Barco	1:4
16.09.18	Barco - Somozas	4:2

Somozas - Barco: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide