Match Info

Australia Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 July 2025, Wednesday

Location: King George V Park (St. John's, NL)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	Paramount+


	South Hobart		South Melbourne

	1	X	2
	6	5.5	1.38	Watch
	7	6	1.26
	5.9	5.3	1.37	Watch
	5.7	5.7	1.39
	4.69	5.30	1.50	Watch
	6	4.75	1.36
	6.32	5.15	1.37	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.94 ↑ (4.84)	5.39 ↑ (5.02)	1.38 ↓ (1.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Hobart
15.6%

Draw
17.2%

South Melbourne
67.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.1%

18.4%

62.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.4%

16.4%

55.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Hobart has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Hobart than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for South Hobart, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for South Melbourne, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

South Hobart - South Melbourne Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. South Hobart will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). South Melbourne will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 4.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): South Melbourne will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Connell N. (G) 3. Gorrie A. 6. Lancaster J. 5. Kokubo M. 19. Herweynen T. 17. Walter A. 8. Kemp K. 7. Berezansky S. 11. Yost A. 10. Morton N. (C) 16. Ayoul P.	1. Diaz Lopez J. (G) 27. Painter-Andrews J. 5. Marshall J. 6. Inglese L. (C) 3. Lampard J. 99. Pope J. 15. Iwakami Y. 88. Leech C. 7. Brennan A. 24. Bonada N. 22. Mikkola M.
Substitutes
22. Brown K. (G) 25. Hess A. 9. Lakoseljac B. 20. Maddock R. 14. Oates H. 12. White O. 18. Wright E.	30. Charlston J. (G) 8. Halfpenny C. 14. Menelaou A. 19. Mesourouni A. 17. O'Sullivan E. 16. Skapoulas A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
28', 1 - 0, Kemp K. ⚽, Gorrie A. (A),
32', 1 - 1, Brennan A. ⚽, Pope J. (A),
41', 1 - 2, Bonada N. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
63', Walter A. ↓, Oates H. ↑,
64', Iwakami Y. ↓, Halfpenny C. ↑,
69', Brennan A. 🟨,
71', Brennan A. ↓, Skapoulas A. ↑,
74', Herweynen T. ↓, Wright E. ↑,
74', Yost A. ↓, Maddock R. ↑,
81', Kemp K. ↓, Hess A. ↑,
90+4', Mikkola M. ↓, Mesourouni A. ↑,

Preview

South Hobart is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

South Melbourne is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

South Melbourne may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.

In this match, South Melbourne is seen as the favorite.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Hobart FC
Australian NPL Tasmania
19.07.25	South Hobart - Devonport City	2:2 ✺
12.07.25	South Hobart - Riverside Olympic	2:0 ✺
28.06.25	South Hobart - Clarence Zebras	3:0 ✺
21.06.25	South Hobart - Launceston United	7:0 ✺
14.06.25	Launceston City - South Hobart	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 TWWWW
- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
19.07.25	South Melbourne - Altona Magic	2:0 ✺
04.07.25	Dandenong City - South Melbourne	3:3 ✺
27.06.25	South Melbourne - Hume City	2:1 ✺
22.06.25	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	0:1 ✺
15.06.25	South Melbourne - Preston Lions	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.6 WTWLW

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