Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 21

Date: 18 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Lakeside Stadium (Melbourne)


	South Melbourne		Preston Lions

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.20	3.50	2.75
	2.15	3.20	2.88
	2.12	3.87	2.98
	2.38	3.83	2.58	Watch
	2.06	3.80	2.90
	2.15	3.60	2.79	Watch
	2.20	3.60	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.18 ↓ (2.7)	3.63 ↓ (3.91)	2.8 ↑ (2.22)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
42%

Draw
25.3%

Preston Lions
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

23.8%

41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.7%

23.3%

42.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in South Melbourne's performance.

Preston Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Preston Lions might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with South Melbourne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Preston Lions than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Preston Lions could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

South Melbourne - Preston Lions Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - South Melbourne (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. South Melbourne (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Quarter~finals))

In recent matches, South Melbourne has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Preston is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Recently, Preston has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.7:1).

Including home match between the teams, South Melbourne won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
10.07.26	Dandenong City - South Melbourne	0:2 ✺
05.07.26	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	South Melbourne - Green Gully	1:2 ✺
19.06.26	Bentleigh Greens - South Melbourne	1:5 ✺
07.06.26	South Melbourne - Altona Magic	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWLWL
- Preston Lions
Australian NPL Victoria
10.07.26	Preston Lions - Hume City	2:1 ✺
04.07.26	Avondale - Preston Lions	2:3 ✺
27.06.26	Caroline Springs George Cross - Preston Lions	0:2 ✺
20.06.26	Heidelberg United - Preston Lions	0:1 ✺
31.05.26	St Albans Dinamo - Preston Lions	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
11.04.26	Preston Lions - South Melbourne	0:3
15.06.25	South Melbourne - Preston Lions	2:1
07.03.25	Preston Lions - South Melbourne	2:0

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