Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 20

Date: 10 July 2026, Friday

Location: Frank Holohan Soccer Complex (Dandenong)


	Dandenong City		South Melbourne

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.60	3.60	1.83
	3.15	3.35	1.96
	3.63	4.44	1.81
	3.12	3.96	2.02	Watch
	3.40	4.35	1.75
	3.41	4.00	1.79	Watch
	3.50	3.85	1.81
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.4 ↑ (2.17)	3.94 ↑ (3.7)	1.85 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Dandenong City
27%

Draw
23.4%

South Melbourne
49.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.8%

25.1%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.1%

24.4%

31.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Dandenong City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Dandenong City's form might have worsened.

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting South Melbourne's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Dandenong City than the current prediction. (+17.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Dandenong City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-18.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for South Melbourne, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	10%	90%

Dandenong City - South Melbourne Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. South Melbourne will win (votes: 9 - 90%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for South Melbourne: 71.4% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 9 and 7).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dandenong City won 2.

Dandenong City is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

South Melbourne's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Dandenong City won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 14:17. (average 1.4:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Dandenong City won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:9. (average 1.4:1.8).

Last Results with these Odds

Dandenong City - the odds 2.17 are the expected chance of winning is 42.78%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Dandenong City SC
Australian NPL Victoria
04.07.26	Hume City - Dandenong City	0:0 ✺
26.06.26	Dandenong City - Avondale	3:1 ✺
20.06.26	Caroline Springs George Cross - Dandenong City	3:2 ✺
05.06.26	Dandenong City - Heidelberg United	4:1 ✺
30.05.26	Melbourne City Youth - Dandenong City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 30.8 TWLWW
- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
05.07.26	South Melbourne - Dandenong Thunder	1:0 ✺
28.06.26	South Melbourne - Green Gully	1:2 ✺
19.06.26	Bentleigh Greens - South Melbourne	1:5 ✺
07.06.26	South Melbourne - Altona Magic	2:3 ✺
30.05.26	Hume City - South Melbourne	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.3 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Victoria
31.03.26	South Melbourne - Dandenong City	4:2
04.07.25	Dandenong City - South Melbourne	3:3
31.03.25	South Melbourne - Dandenong City	1:3
19.07.24	South Melbourne - Dandenong City	1:2
19.04.24	Dandenong City - South Melbourne	0:4
13.08.22	South Melbourne - Dandenong City	1:0
07.05.22	Dandenong City - South Melbourne	0:1

Upcoming Matches