Match Info

OFC Pro League - Winners stage

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday


	South Melbourne		South Island United

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.38	4.65	5.84
	1.4	4.83	5.98	Watch
	1.34	4.85	6.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↓ (1.38)	4.78 ↓ (5.08)	6.17 ↑ (6.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 8.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
66.2%

Draw
19%

South Island United
14.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.8%

18.1%

15%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.6%

18.6%

14.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

South Island United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Island United than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

South Melbourne - South Island United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (4 - 1)
17', 0 - 1, Feutz R. ⚽,
22', 1 - 1, Cocks A. ⚽,
26', 2 - 1, Mikkola M. ⚽,
34', 3 - 1, Jankovic M. ⚽,
45+2', 4 - 1, Swibel J. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
80', 4 - 2, Fay O. ⚽,

Preview

Recent performances by South Melbourne have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

South Island is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

South Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, South Melbourne is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, South Melbourne won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:4. (average 3.5:2).

Including home match between the teams, South Melbourne won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
08.05.26	Heidelberg United - South Melbourne	4:0 ✺
OFC Pro League
06.05.26	Auckland FC 2 - South Melbourne	1:2 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
01.05.26	South Melbourne - Melbourne City Youth	1:2 ✺
24.04.26	St Albans Dinamo - South Melbourne	0:4 ✺
OFC Pro League
21.04.26	South Melbourne - Tahiti United	8:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LWLWW
- South Island United
OFC Pro League
05.05.26	Bula - South Island United	0:1 ✺
20.04.26	South Island United - Auckland FC 2	1:3 ✺
16.04.26	South Island United - Solomon Kings	2:1 ✺
13.04.26	South Island United - Tahiti United	3:3 ✺
10.04.26	Vanuatu United - South Island United	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLWTW

Latest Head to Head

OFC Pro League
27.02.26	South Melbourne - South Island United	4:1
31.01.26	South Island United - South Melbourne	3:3

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