Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 11

Date: 1 May 2026, Friday

Location: Lakeside Stadium (Melbourne)


	South Melbourne		Melbourne City Youth

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.45	4.45	5.15	Watch
	1.49	5.06	5.4
	1.54	4.95	4.6	Watch
	1.44	4.5	5
	1.45	4.7	5.01
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.47 ↓ (1.99)	4.73 ↑ (3.75)	5.03 ↑ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

South Melbourne
62.3%

Draw
19.4%

Melbourne City Youth
18.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.7%

24.2%

30%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

23.3%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

South Melbourne has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in South Melbourne's performance.

Melbourne City Youth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Melbourne City Youth might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (-14.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with South Melbourne that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Melbourne City Youth than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Melbourne City Youth could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

South Melbourne - Melbourne City Youth Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. South Melbourne will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Melbourne City Youth will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
10', 0 - 1, ⚽,
31', 1 - 1, ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 9).

South Melbourne has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Melbourne City Youth has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

South Melbourne may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, South Melbourne has had a series of home games.

South Melbourne will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- South Melbourne FC
Australian NPL Victoria
24.04.26	St Albans Dinamo - South Melbourne	0:4 ✺
OFC Pro League
21.04.26	South Melbourne - Tahiti United	8:1 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
19.04.26	South Melbourne - Oakleigh Cannons	0:3 ✺
OFC Pro League
17.04.26	South Melbourne - PNG Hekari	1:2 ✺
15.04.26	South Melbourne - Bula	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLLW
- Melbourne City Youth
Australian NPL Victoria
26.04.26	Melbourne City Youth - Hume City	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Avondale - Melbourne City Youth	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Melbourne City Youth - Caroline Springs George Cross	1:1 ✺
27.03.26	Heidelberg United - Melbourne City Youth	1:1 ✺
22.03.26	Melbourne City Youth - Altona Magic	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLTTT

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