Match Info

NPL Victoria - Round 12

Date: 8 May 2026, Friday

Location: Olympic Park Stadium (Melbourne)


	Heidelberg United		South Melbourne

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.09	7.7	15.5
	1.11	10.15	10.64
	1.14	10.43	9.79	Watch
	1.13	9	12
	1.08	9.6	12.5	Watch
	1.75	3.45	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.51)	8.39 ↑ (4.72)	10.71 ↑ (4.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Heidelberg United
79.4%

Draw
11.5%

South Melbourne
9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

19.5%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.8%

18.9%

19%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Heidelberg United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Heidelberg United's performance.

South Melbourne has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and South Melbourne might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Heidelberg United than the current prediction. (-16.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Heidelberg United that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for South Melbourne than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that South Melbourne could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Heidelberg United - South Melbourne Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:3

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
23', 1 - 0, ⚽,
30', 2 - 0, ⚽,
32', 3 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
51', 4 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Victoria (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Heidelberg United won 2.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Heidelberg United may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Heidelberg United is the clear favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Heidelberg United won 11 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 35:24. (average 1.8:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Heidelberg United won 6 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.7:1.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Heidelberg United
Australian NPL Victoria
02.05.26	Hume City - Heidelberg United	2:1 ✺
24.04.26	Heidelberg United - Avondale	2:1 ✺
18.04.26	Caroline Springs George Cross - Heidelberg United	0:3 ✺
10.04.26	Heidelberg United - Altona Magic	2:2 ✺
27.03.26	Heidelberg United - Melbourne City Youth	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWTT
- South Melbourne FC
OFC Pro League
06.05.26	Auckland FC 2 - South Melbourne	1:2 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
01.05.26	South Melbourne - Melbourne City Youth	1:2 ✺
24.04.26	St Albans Dinamo - South Melbourne	0:4 ✺
OFC Pro League
21.04.26	South Melbourne - Tahiti United	8:1 ✺
Australian NPL Victoria
19.04.26	South Melbourne - Oakleigh Cannons	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Australian Championship
28.11.25	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	1:0
Australian NPL Victoria
26.07.25	Heidelberg United - South Melbourne	1:1
13.04.25	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	0:3
16.06.24	Heidelberg United - South Melbourne	1:0
08.03.24	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	1:1
16.08.23	Heidelberg United - South Melbourne	2:1
17.03.23	South Melbourne - Heidelberg United	0:2

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