Match Info

Date: 26 November 2020, Thursday


	Spartaks		Jelgava

	1	X	2
	1.2	5.5	11	Watch
	1.22	5.75	9.75
	1.28	4.9	7.5	Watch
	1.22	5.2	10
	1.23	5.24	10.17
	1.22	5.25	12	Watch
	1.2	6.1	12
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.22 ↓ (1.61)	5.42 ↑ (3.78)	10.35 ↑ (4.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spartaks
74.4%

Draw
16.8%

Jelgava
8.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56.4%

24%

19.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.1%

19.6%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spartaks has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+18%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Spartaks's performance.

Jelgava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Jelgava might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spartaks than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Spartaks that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Jelgava could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Spartaks - Jelgava Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Limited number of spectators.

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 6 and 7).

Recent matches Spartaks is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Jelgava has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Spartaks could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Jelgava have a series of home games.

In this match Spartaks is a favorite.

Last 37 head-to-head matches Spartaks won 13 matches, drawn 12 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 43-36.

Including matches at home between the teams Spartaks won 7 matches, drawn 7 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 27-19.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spartaks Jurmala
Latvian Virsliga
04.11.20	Liepāja - Spartaks	0:1 ✺
01.11.20	Spartaks - Tukums 2000	2:4 ✺
25.10.20	Valmiera - Spartaks	0:1 ✺
Latvian Cup
21.10.20	Spartaks - Liepāja	1:3 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
17.10.20	Spartaks - Ventspils	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 WLWLL
- FS Jelgava
Latvian Virsliga
20.11.20	Jelgava - Valmiera	2:2 ✺
01.11.20	Jelgava - Ventspils	0:5 ✺
25.10.20	Rīgas FS - Jelgava	1:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
21.10.20	Jelgava - Ventspils	0:1 penalties ✺
Latvian Virsliga
17.10.20	Jelgava - Riga	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.3 TLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Virsliga
29.08.20	Jelgava - Spartaks	2:3
18.07.20	Spartaks - Jelgava	4:1
05.10.19	Jelgava - Spartaks	5:2
27.07.19	Spartaks - Jelgava	1:2
21.05.19	Jelgava - Spartaks	0:3
09.04.19	Spartaks - Jelgava	1:2
23.09.18	Jelgava - Spartaks	0:0

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