Match Info

Date: 1 November 2020, Sunday


	Jelgava		Ventspils

	1	X	2
	4.5	3.8	1.61	Watch
	3.9	3.4	1.83
				Watch
	4.4	3.35	1.71
	4.92	3.46	1.7
	4.8	3.25	1.7
	4.65	3.55	1.71
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.53 ↑ (3.78)	3.47 ↓ (3.78)	1.71 ↓ (1.73)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jelgava
20.2%

Draw
26.4%

Ventspils
53.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

23.9%

52.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

63.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jelgava has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.7%)

Ventspils has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jelgava than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ventspils than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ventspils could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Jelgava - Ventspils Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Preview

Limited number of spectators.

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 7 and 4).

Recent matches Jelgava is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Ventspils is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Ventspils could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Ventspils is a favorite.

Last 37 head-to-head matches Jelgava won 11 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 18 matches and goals 26-43.

Including matches at home between the teams Jelgava won 6 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 11 matches and goals 14-21.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FS Jelgava
Latvian Virsliga
25.10.20	Rīgas FS - Jelgava	1:0 ✺
Latvian Cup
21.10.20	Jelgava - Ventspils	0:1 penalties ✺
Latvian Virsliga
17.10.20	Jelgava - Riga	0:2 ✺
04.10.20	Metta - Jelgava	0:1 ✺
27.09.20	Jelgava - BFC Daugavpils	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LLLWW
- FK Ventspils
Latvian Cup
28.10.20	Ventspils - Rīgas FS	1:0 ✺
Latvian Virsliga
25.10.20	Ventspils - Liepāja	0:2 ✺
Latvian Cup
21.10.20	Jelgava - Ventspils	0:1 penalties ✺
Latvian Virsliga
17.10.20	Spartaks - Ventspils	1:2 ✺
03.10.20	Ventspils - Valmiera	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.4 WLWWT

Latest Head to Head

Latvian Cup
21.10.20	Jelgava - Ventspils	0:1 penalties
Latvian Virsliga
16.08.20	Ventspils - Jelgava	5:0
09.07.20	Jelgava - Ventspils	1:0
14.09.19	Ventspils - Jelgava	1:1
30.06.19	Jelgava - Ventspils	1:2
08.05.19	Ventspils - Jelgava	1:1
16.03.19	Jelgava - Ventspils	2:1

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