Match Info

League Two - Round 9

Date: 3 October 2026, Saturday

Location: Ainslie Park (Edinburgh)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Kelty Hearts TV, Spartans FC TV, SPFL Player


	Spartans		Kelty Hearts

	1	X	2
	1.65	4.00	3.90
	1.66	3.70	4.00
	1.64	3.75	3.95
	1.75	3.84	4.16
	1.67	3.91	4.32	Watch
	1.71	3.80	4.10
	1.72	4.16	4.06
	1.65	3.90	4.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.68 ↓ (1.78)	3.88 ↑ (3.87)	4.09 ↑ (3.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Spartans
54.2%

Draw
23.5%

Kelty Hearts
22.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.8%

23.8%

24.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.7%

23.4%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spartans has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

Kelty Hearts has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spartans than the current prediction. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kelty Hearts than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Spartans - Kelty Hearts Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
21. Martin P. (G) 7. Dishington J. 2. Mudie M. 5. Tapping J. 19. Drysdale E. 18. Walls B. 28. Craigen J. (C) 33. Whyte B. 11. Russell C. 29. Stowe M. 9. McNulty M.	1. Smith J. (G) 25. Walker G. 5. Flatman C. 15. Davidson A. 3. Hannah C. 6. Ferguson A. 26. Cunningham R. (C) 14. Hislop J. 17. Falconer M. 10. Murray I. 11. Cole R.
Substitutes
1. Campbell R. 14. Dinanga R. 16. Fitzsimmons O. 23. Heal B. 4. Hewie F. 6. Lothian K. 20. McAllister Z. 10. Ross M. 12. Thomson A.	21. Adamson R. (G) 16. Falconer T. 22. Flatman Z. 9. Higginbotham K. 18. Lawson N. 23. Moore L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
8', Dishington J. 🟨,
18', 0 - 1, Dishington J. (Own goal),
45', Ferguson A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', 0 - 2, Hislop J. ⚽, Walker G. (A),
54', Ferguson A. ↓, Moore L. ↑,
58', Dishington J. ↓, Heal B. ↑,
58', Stowe M. ↓, Dinanga R. ↑,
69', Craigen J. ↓, McAllister Z. ↑,
73', Hislop J. ↓, Lawson N. ↑,
77', Whyte B. 🟨,
79', Murray I. ↓, Higginbotham K. ↑,

Preview

This match features one of the top teams against an opponent battling near the bottom (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - League One Promotion - Playoffs and 9th).

Both teams have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Kelty Hearts may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Spartans for this game.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Spartans has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:7 (averaging 1:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Spartans against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Outrights of Scottish League Two for now

Kelty Hearts: 10.33% Spartans: 7.87%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Spartans	9	3	3	3	19:17	2	12
5	Kelty Hearts	9	4	0	5	13:18	-5	12

Last Results with these Odds

Spartans - the odds 1.78 are the expected chance of winning is 51.76%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Spartans FC
Scottish Challenge Cup
25.09.26	Spartans - Dundee 2	1:0 ✺
22.09.26	Gala Fairydean - Spartans	0:0 ✺
Scottish League Two
19.09.26	Dumbarton - Spartans	3:0 ✺
12.09.26	Spartans - Forfar Athletic	5:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.09.26	Spartans - Hamilton Academical	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WTLWL
- Kelty Hearts
Scottish Challenge Cup
26.09.26	Kelty Hearts - Montrose	2:1 ✺
22.09.26	Kelty Hearts - Hearts B	3:5 ✺
Scottish League Two
19.09.26	Kelty Hearts - Edinburgh City	1:3 ✺
12.09.26	Clyde - Kelty Hearts	4:1 ✺
Scottish Challenge Cup
08.09.26	Cumbernauld Colts - Kelty Hearts	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Scottish Lowland League
27.08.19	Kelty Hearts - Spartans	5:0
08.03.19	Spartans - Kelty Hearts	2:1
03.11.18	Kelty Hearts - Spartans	1:1

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