Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 4

Date: 6 May 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Defensores del Chaco (Asunción)

Referee: Salazar B. L. (Ecu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Disney+, ESPN
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 4, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect
Brazil	Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+, ESPN 3
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Peru	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Disney+, Inter


	Sportivo Luqueño		Godoy Cruz

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.3	1.8	Watch
	5	3.3	1.77
	4.75	3.4	1.78	Watch
	4.88	3.41	1.8
	4.86	3.36	1.83	Watch
	4.8	3.2	1.75	Watch
	4.64	3.35	1.86	Watch
	4.75	3.4	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.8 ↑ (3.04)	3.34 ↑ (2.99)	1.8 ↓ (2.48)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sportivo Luqueño
19.6%

Draw
28.1%

Godoy Cruz
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.8%

31.4%

37.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

31%

38.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sportivo Luqueño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sportivo Luqueño's form might have worsened.

Godoy Cruz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Godoy Cruz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (+10.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sportivo Luqueño, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Godoy Cruz than the current prediction. (-14%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Godoy Cruz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
9.5%	19%	71.4%

Sportivo Luqueño - Godoy Cruz Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Sportivo Luqueño will win (votes: 2 - 9.5%). Godoy Cruz will win (votes: 15 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 19%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Godoy Cruz: 52.1% – 90.7%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - Godoy Cruz (2.29) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -0.75 - Godoy Cruz (1.99) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Godoy Cruz will win (8 of 10 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 13 Selected Experts predict this event. Sportivo Luqueño (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Godoy Cruz (votes: 11 - 84.6%). Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Aguilar A. (G) 2. Ferreira R. 23. Aguilar P. (C) 6. Marchio J. 15. Maldonado S. 8. Rodriguez W. 16. Benitez A. 20. Rios R. D. 17. Ayala W. 11. Vera E. 29. Santander F.	1. Petroli F. (G) 4. Arce L. 19. Funes M. 6. Quiroz L. 21. Meli A. 13. Fernandez N. 25. Poggi V. 11. Barrea D. 32. Abrego G. 27. Andino S. 41. Altamira F.
Substitutes
27. Baez J. 14. Benitez F. 3. Brizuela A. 37. Comas L. 40. Espinola A. (G) 9. Gonzalez W. 10. Hauche G. 22. Ocampos S. 24. Parra A. 7. Pereira K. 19. Perez M. 13. Torres I.	31. Auzmendi A. 7. Cejas J. 77. Dupuy L. 15. Facello F. 5. Leyes B. 3. Moran J. 20. Parzajuk K. 35. Pascual L. 50. Perez J. 10. Pozzo T. A. 12. Ramirez R. (G) 24. Yanez B.
Coaches
Morinigo G.	Solari E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
16', Rodriguez W. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ayala W. ↓, Hauche G. ↑,
46', Rios R. D. ↓, Gonzalez W. ↑,
47', Benitez A. 🟨,
61', Vera E. 🟨,
65', Barrea D. ↓, Auzmendi A. ↑,
72', 0 - 1, Auzmendi A. ⚽, Poggi V. (A),
74', Santander F. ↓, Comas L. ↑,
80', Benitez A. ↓, Benitez F. ↑,
81', Comas L. 🟨,
82', Abrego G. ↓, Leyes B. ↑,
82', Altamira F. ↓, Pozzo T. A. ↑,
82', Quiroz L. 🟨,
84', Vera E. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
89', Benitez F. 🟨,
90', Andino S. ↓, Parzajuk K. ↑,
90+3', Poggi V. 🟨,

Preview

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Godoy Cruz may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Godoy Cruz could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Sportivo Luqueño won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Godoy Cruz - the odds 2.48 are the expected chance of winning is 37.84%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sportivo Luqueño
Paraguayan Primera Division
02.05.25	2 de Mayo - Sportivo Luqueño	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Sportivo Luqueño - General Caballero JLM	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
23.04.25	Atlético Grau - Sportivo Luqueño	2:2 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.04.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:1 ✺
15.04.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Trinidense	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 TTTLW
- Godoy Cruz
Argentinian Liga Profesional
03.05.25	Deportivo Riestra - Godoy Cruz	3:0 ✺
28.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Atlético Tucumán	1:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
24.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Grêmio	2:2 ✺
Argentinian Liga Profesional
20.04.25	San Martín de San Juan - Godoy Cruz	1:0 ✺
14.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Lanús	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Sportivo Luqueño	2:0

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