Match Info

Copa Sudamericana - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 23 April 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Alejandro Villanueva (Lima)

Referee: Ulloa D. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	ESPN 2
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 2, TOD
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Colombia	ESPN 2
Indonesia	Mola TV
Italy	Como TV
Paraguay	Tigo Sports
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 2 South
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Atlético Grau		Sportivo Luqueño

	1	X	2
	2.25	2.9	3.5	Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.87
	2.35	3	3.25	Watch
	2.31	3.05	3.46
	2.3	3.08	3.45	Watch
	2.5	2.9	2.9	Watch
	2.26	3.04	3.45	Watch
	2.35	3	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.49)	3.01 ↓ (3.08)	3.27 ↑ (2.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Grau
40%

Draw
31.2%

Sportivo Luqueño
28.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.7%

30.5%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

29.5%

30.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Grau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Sportivo Luqueño has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético Grau than the current prediction. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Luqueño than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	60%	0%

Atlético Grau - Sportivo Luqueño Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Grau will win (votes: 2 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Grau (1.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Grau (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Alvarez P. (G) 16. F. Rojas 27. Tapia R. 13. Franco D. 14. Bolivar J. 15. Rostaing J. 8. Soto D. 5. Guarderas R. 6. Rodas E. 7. Garro J. 11. Bandiera N.	12. Aguilar A. (G) 2. Ferreira R. 3. Brizuela A. 6. Marchio J. 13. Torres I. 37. Comas L. 16. Benitez A. 17. Ayala W. 11. Vera E. 20. Rios R. D. 9. Gonzalez W.
Substitutes
2. Cavagna F. 26. Flores A. 12. Fuentes A. (G) 29. Garcia B. 22. Herrera Joel 17. Reyes J. 21. Reynoso A. (G) 28. Solis A. 18. Trelles A. 20. Vasquez A. 30. Vasquez E. 25. Vilca R.	23. Aguilar P. 27. Baez J. 14. Benitez F. 40. Espinola A. (G) 10. Hauche G. 15. Maldonado S. 22. Ocampos S. 24. Parra A. 7. Pereira K. 19. Perez M. 8. Rodriguez W. 29. Santander F.
Coaches
Comizzo A.	Morinigo G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
8', 0 - 1, Ayala W. ⚽, Gonzalez W. (A),
24', F. Rojas 🟨,
27', 0 - 2, Gonzalez W. ⚽, Ayala W. (A),
44', 1 - 2, Garro J. ⚽, Franco D. (A),
45+3', Guarderas R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Rodas E. ↓, Vasquez A. ↑,
46', Rostaing J. ↓, Vilca R. ↑,
65', Benitez A. 🟨,
68', Comas L. ↓, Benitez F. ↑,
75', Gonzalez W. ↓, Santander F. ↑,
75', Ayala W. ↓, Perez M. ↑,
75', Rios R. D. ↓, Baez J. ↑,
84', Guarderas R. ↓, Herrera Joel ↑,
85', Vera E. ↓, Rodriguez W. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 2, Bandiera N. ⚽, Garro J. (A),

Preview

Grau is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Sportivo Luqueño is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Grau could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Recently Sportivo Luqueño have a series of guest games.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Grau
Peruvian Liga 1
17.04.25	Alianza Universidad de Huánuco - Atlético Grau	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Grêmio - Atlético Grau	2:0 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
05.04.25	Atlético Grau - Cienciano	1:1 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
02.04.25	Atlético Grau - Godoy Cruz	0:2 ✺
Peruvian Liga 1
27.03.25	Comerciantes Unidos - Atlético Grau	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 TLTLT
- Sportivo Luqueño
Paraguayan Primera Division
19.04.25	Olimpia Asuncion - Sportivo Luqueño	3:1 ✺
15.04.25	Sportivo Luqueño - Sportivo Trinidense	1:0 ✺
12.04.25	Cerro Porteño - Sportivo Luqueño	0:0 ✺
Copa Sudamericana
08.04.25	Godoy Cruz - Sportivo Luqueño	2:0 ✺
Paraguayan Primera Division
05.04.25	Atlético Tembetary - Sportivo Luqueño	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 LWTLT

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