Match Info

Challenge League - Round 4

Date: 21 August 2026, Friday

Location: Colovray Sports Centre (Nyon)

Referee: Anex D. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 1, Blue Sport 1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Stade Nyonnais		Étoile Carouge

	1	X	2
	3.80	3.60	1.72
	3.7	3.65	1.78
	4.63	4.21	1.68
	4.26	4.47	1.65	Watch
	4.55	4.15	1.64
	4.54	4.24	1.63	Watch
	4.4	3.9	1.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.27 ↑ (3.26)	4.03 ↑ (3.89)	1.67 ↓ (1.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stade Nyonnais
21.7%

Draw
23%

Étoile Carouge
55.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.2%

23.6%

48.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

23.1%

49.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stade Nyonnais has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stade Nyonnais's form might have worsened.

Étoile Carouge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Étoile Carouge's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stade Nyonnais than the current prediction. (+5.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stade Nyonnais, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Étoile Carouge than the current prediction. (-6.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Étoile Carouge, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	12.5%	87.5%

Stade Nyonnais - Étoile Carouge Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Étoile (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Étoile Carouge will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.58% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Aubert M. (G) 2. Ouchard R. 25. Diallo T. 15. Grognuz N. 4. Fankhauser S. 66. Philippin R. 75. Moulin P. 6. Ahuissou F. 8. Ribeiro L. (C) 11. Hysenaj F. 91. Regillo M.	23. Huwiler L. (G) 25. Felder V. (C) 4. Strohbach I. 24. Dubosson M. 3. Hoxha F. 8. Ricardo Alves 14. Camara S. 77. Escorza T. 7. Correia O. 76. Itaitinga 88. Essiena L.
Substitutes
24. Betoubam C. 3. Gashi E. 26. Gomis G. 19. Ishuayed M. 7. Lentini F. 70. Londja R. 5. Mandaka J. 1. Mazzeo M. (G) 9. Miguel M.	26. Bossiwa S. 78. Boulkous N. 10. Caslei B. 5. Cespedes B. 1. Diallo M. (G) 6. El Jaouhari M. 80. Januario E. 17. Sene O. 99. Tsoungui M.
Coaches
Mioch A.	Nogueira P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Correia O. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Strohbach I. 🟨,
57', Moulin P. ↓, Mandaka J. ↑,
61', Felder V. ↓, Boulkous N. ↑,
61', Correia O. ↓, Bossiwa S. ↑,
64', Strohbach I. ↓, Cespedes B. ↑,
68', Ouchard R. 🟨,
69', Hysenaj F. ↓, Miguel M. ↑,
69', Regillo M. ↓, Londja R. ↑,
70', Ahuissou F. 🟨,
80', Hoxha F. ↓, Tsoungui M. ↑,
80', Essiena L. ↓, Januario E. ↑,
81', Ahuissou F. ↓, Lentini F. ↑,
81', Ouchard R. ↓, Ishuayed M. ↑,
89', Camara S. 🟨,
90+2', Escorza T. 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 10 in the zone Relegation ~ Promotion League and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stade Nyonnais won 0.

Stade Nyonnais has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, Étoile has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Stade Nyonnais has had a series of away games.

Étoile is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Stade Nyonnais: Thermoncy K. (Inactive)

There will not play in Étoile: Christin B. (Injury) Hoxha F. (Injury) Itaitinga (Injury) Januario E. (Muscle Injury) Kadima R. (Injury)

There are questionable in Étoile: Bossiwa S. (Inactive)

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Stade Nyonnais won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 22:31. (average 1.2:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Stade Nyonnais won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1.2:1.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Etoile-Carouge	9	2	3	4	8:12	-4	9
10	Stade Nyonnais	9	0	2	7	6:23	-17	2

Last Results with these Odds

Stade Nyonnais - the odds 3.26 are the expected chance of winning is 28.23%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Nyonnais
Swiss Challenge League
07.08.26	Aarau - Stade Nyonnais	2:1 ✺
31.07.26	Stade Nyonnais - Rapperswil-Jona	1:2 ✺
24.07.26	Lausanne Ouchy - Stade Nyonnais	2:0 ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.26	Bulle - Stade Nyonnais	4:4 ✺
04.07.26	Servette - Stade Nyonnais	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 LLLTT
- Étoile Carouge
Swiss Challenge League
07.08.26	Étoile Carouge - Neuchâtel Xamax	0:1 ✺
31.07.26	Yverdon - Étoile Carouge	1:1 ✺
24.07.26	Étoile Carouge - Aarau	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
11.07.26	Servette - Étoile Carouge	1:2 ✺
01.07.26	Étoile Carouge - Grand-Saconnex	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.6 LTWWL

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
03.04.26	Étoile Carouge - Stade Nyonnais	0:0
23.01.26	Stade Nyonnais - Étoile Carouge	2:2
07.11.25	Stade Nyonnais - Étoile Carouge	0:0
26.08.25	Étoile Carouge - Stade Nyonnais	1:1
31.03.25	Étoile Carouge - Stade Nyonnais	2:1
07.03.25	Stade Nyonnais - Étoile Carouge	0:3
04.10.24	Étoile Carouge - Stade Nyonnais	3:1

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