Match Info

Challenge League - Round 1

Date: 24 July 2026, Friday

Location: Stade de la Fontenette (Carouge)

Referee: Qovanaj H. (Sui)

Where to Watch on TV:


Switzerland	Blue Sport 4, Blue Sport 4
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Étoile Carouge		Aarau

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.50	2.05
	3.35	3.60	1.85
	3.04	3.86	2.19
	3.36	4.07	1.92	Watch
	3.00	3.80	2.12
	3.04	3.58	2.04	Watch
	2.90	3.55	2.09
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.08 ↓ (4.6)	3.71 ↓ (4.51)	2.04 ↑ (1.55)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Étoile Carouge
29.9%

Draw
24.8%

Aarau
45.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

20.1%

20.4%

59.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Étoile Carouge has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Étoile Carouge's performance.

Aarau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-14.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Aarau might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
21.4%	7.1%	71.4%

Étoile Carouge - Aarau Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Étoile will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). Aarau will win (votes: 10 - 71.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Aarau: 47.7% – 95.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Aarau (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Diallo M. (G) 25. Felder V. 4. Strohbach I. 24. Dubosson M. 78. Boulkous N. 14. Camara S. 10. Caslei B. (C) 7. Correia O. 77. Escorza T. 88. Essiena L. 17. Sene O.	30. Hirzel A. (G) 29. Dickenmann M. 15. Muller S. 2. Thaler M. (C) 3. Guzzo R. 42. Senyurt B. 6. Aliu I. 31. Petit-Viretti V. 20. Ndau K. 18. Afriyie D. 9. Baturina R.
Substitutes
16. Biku E. 6. El Jaouhari M. 21. Holcbecher M. 23. Huwiler L. (G) 13. Koroma C. 2. Neves D. 8. Ricardo Alves	28. Coric D. 4. Hasani B. 23. Jordan E. 11. Koide H. 44. Tairi Z. 21. van der Werff J. 70. Zalokar S. (G)
Coaches
Nogueira P.	Iacopetta B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
30', Strohbach I. 🟨,
2nd Half (3 - 0)
46', Camara S. 🟨,
52', 1 - 0, Camara S. ⚽, Sene O. (A),
59', Sene O. 🟨,
60', Escorza T. 🟨,
63', Baturina R. ↓, Koide H. ↑,
67', 2 - 0, Correia O. ⚽, Essiena L. (A),
72', Senyurt B. ↓, Hasani B. ↑,
72', Aliu I. ↓, Tairi Z. ↑,
73', Camara S. ↓, El Jaouhari M. ↑,
73', Escorza T. ↓, Ricardo Alves ↑,
78', 3 - 0, Guzzo R. (Own goal),
85', Ndau K. ↓, van der Werff J. ↑,
85', Petit-Viretti V. ↓, Coric D. ↑,
87', Essiena L. ↓, Holcbecher M. ↑,
87', Boulkous N. ↓, Neves D. ↑,
90+1', Sene O. ↓, Koroma C. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 1.

Étoile may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Aarau is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Étoile: Boulkous N. (Inactive) Harrington F. (Injury) Ricardo Alves (Inactive)

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Étoile won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:16. (average 1.2:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Étoile won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:10. (average 1:2.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Aarau	9	3	3	3	14:16	-2	12
8	Etoile-Carouge	9	2	3	4	8:12	-4	9

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Étoile Carouge
Club Friendly
11.07.26	Servette - Étoile Carouge	1:2 ✺
01.07.26	Étoile Carouge - Grand-Saconnex	0:1 ✺
27.06.26	Sion - Étoile Carouge	7:0 ✺
Swiss Challenge League
15.05.26	Étoile Carouge - Bellinzona	2:2 ✺
11.05.26	Neuchâtel Xamax - Étoile Carouge	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WLLTL
- FC Aarau
Club Friendly
18.07.26	Aarau - Union Berlin	2:1 ✺
10.07.26	Austria Lustenau - Aarau	1:0 ✺
30.06.26	Aarau - St. Gallen II	1:3 ✺
Swiss Super League
21.05.26	Grasshoppers - Aarau	2:1 ET ✺
18.05.26	Aarau - Grasshoppers	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 WLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Swiss Challenge League
07.04.26	Aarau - Étoile Carouge	1:3
06.03.26	Étoile Carouge - Aarau	0:3
12.12.25	Aarau - Étoile Carouge	2:1
26.09.25	Étoile Carouge - Aarau	1:3
16.05.25	Étoile Carouge - Aarau	1:3
28.03.25	Aarau - Étoile Carouge	2:2
Swiss Cup
05.12.24	Aarau - Étoile Carouge	0:1

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