Match Info

Division 1 - Round 30

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Jenda M. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP 3, TVP Sport app


	Stal Mielec		Śląsk Wrocław

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.4	2.1	Watch
	2.92	3.6	2.18
	3.1	3.56	2.26
	2.96	3.72	2.19	Watch
	2.9	3.25	2.15
	2.99	3.36	2.14
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.96 ↓ (2.98)	3.48 ↑ (3.42)	2.17 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
31.1%

Draw
26.5%

Śląsk Wrocław
42.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.9%

27%

42.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

29.9%

26.1%

43.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Śląsk Wrocław has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Śląsk Wrocław than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	0%	66.7%

Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Śląsk will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
99. Gostomski M. (G) 20. Szeliga B. 44. Puerto I. 15. Senger M. 5. Matynia H. 24. Nunez C. 18. Wlazlo P. (C) 90. Kruszelnicki P. 6. Pisek J. 78. Cybulski K. 25. Fucak K.	25. Szromnik M. (G) 27. Rosiak M. 33. Matsenko Y. 5. Ba L. 44. Malec M. 15. Yriarte J. 14. Mokrzycki M. 16. Kurowski K. 7. Samiec-Talar P. (C) 91. Banaszak P. 11. Marjanac L.
Substitutes
33. Bukowski A. 27. Diez A. 10. Domanski M. 32. Gerbowski F. 71. Kowalski J. 88. Lukic D. 1. Matys M. (G) 11. Odolak K. 70. Tsykalo Y.	77. Ciucka A. 4. Dijakovic M. 10. Jambor T. 47. Klimek A. 38. Markowski D. 39. Rygiel S. 24. Sharabura Y. 31. Sliczniak H. (G) 26. Wojtczak O.
Coaches
Mamrot I.	Simundza A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 2)
18', 1 - 0, Kruszelnicki P. ⚽,
21', 1 - 1, Banaszak P. (Penalty Awarded),
29', Ba L. 🟨,
32', 2 - 1, Szeliga B. ⚽, Matynia H. (A),
40', Pisek J. ↓, Bukowski A. ↑,
45+4', 2 - 2, Banaszak P. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Wlazlo P. ↓, Tsykalo Y. ↑,
63', Mokrzycki M. 🟨,
70', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Kowalski J. ↑,
78', Cybulski K. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
81', 2 - 3, Mokrzycki M. ⚽, Rosiak M. (A),
86', Marjanac L. ↓, Jambor T. ↑,
86', Kurowski K. ↓, Dijakovic M. ↑,
90', Samiec-Talar P. ↓, Wojtczak O. ↑,
90+5', Puerto I. 🟨,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 15 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Ekstraklasa).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 2.

Stal Mielec has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Śląsk is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Śląsk may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Śląsk could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Stal Mielec won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 13:14. (average 1.2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Stal Mielec won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 7:6. (average 1.4:1.2).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Stal Mielec: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	14:23	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Stal Mielec - the odds 2.98 are the expected chance of winning is 30.95%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
17.04.26	Chrobry Głogów - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	3:1 ✺
06.04.26	Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki - Stal Mielec	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Stal Mielec - Wieczysta Kraków	3:1 ✺
14.03.26	Ruch Chorzów - Stal Mielec	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 LWWWL
- Śląsk Wrocław
Polish Division 1
18.04.26	Śląsk Wrocław - Znicz Pruszków	2:2 ✺
10.04.26	Polonia Warsaw - Śląsk Wrocław	0:4 ✺
04.04.26	Śląsk Wrocław - Pogoń Siedlce	1:0 ✺
21.03.26	Puszcza Niepołomice - Śląsk Wrocław	1:1 ✺
15.03.26	GKS Tychy - Śląsk Wrocław	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
19.10.25	Śląsk Wrocław - Stal Mielec	2:1
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.25	Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław	1:4
23.10.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Stal Mielec	2:1
16.02.24	Śląsk Wrocław - Stal Mielec	0:1
12.08.23	Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław	3:1
18.03.23	Śląsk Wrocław - Stal Mielec	1:1
03.09.22	Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław	2:0

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