Match Info

Division 1 - Round 25

Date: 14 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Superauto.pl Stadion Slaski (Chorzów)

Referee: Lezny S. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP 3, TVP Sport app


	Ruch Chorzów		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.3	3.5
	2	3.45	3.4
	1.99	3.81	3.56
	2	3.83	3.31	Watch
	1.91	3.4	3.3
	1.95	3.49	3.7	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (1.98)	3.55 ↓ (3.69)	3.46 ↑ (3.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ruch Chorzów
47.3%

Draw
26%

Stal Mielec
26.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

24.9%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

23.7%

27.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ruch Chorzów has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ruch Chorzów than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85.7%	14.3%	0%

Ruch Chorzów - Stal Mielec Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Ruch Chorzów (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Ruch Chorzów will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
33. Gradecki B. (G) 15. Konczkowski M. 17. Lukic A. 24. Komor A. 38. Karasinski S. 25. Ventura D. 18. Nagamatsu S. 20. Szymanski S. (C) 13. Jendryka J. 95. Szczepan D. 21. Szwedzik P.	99. Gostomski M. (G) 20. Szeliga B. 2. Szala D. 44. Puerto I. 5. Matynia H. 24. Nunez C. 18. Wlazlo P. (C) 33. Bukowski A. 90. Kruszelnicki P. 25. Fucak K. 78. Cybulski K.
Substitutes
82. Bielecki J. (G) 77. Ceglarz P. 7. Kolar M. 29. Lachendro F. 4. Preisler D. 5. Rosol M. 27. Szwoch M. 6. Szyminski P.	27. Diez A. 10. Domanski M. 32. Gerbowski F. 22. Kavcic M. 71. Kowalski J. 1. Matys M. (G) 11. Odolak K. 15. Senger M. 70. Tsykalo Y.
Coaches
Fornalik W.	Mamrot I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Kruszelnicki P. ⚽,
11', 1 - 1, Nagamatsu S. ⚽,
32', Szczepan D. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', 2 - 1, Ventura D. ⚽,
60', Fucak K. 🟨,
62', Bukowski A. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
71', Szczepan D. ↓, Kolar M. ↑,
74', Nunez C. ↓, Tsykalo Y. ↑,
75', Puerto I. 🟨,
78', Cybulski K. ↓, Kowalski J. ↑,
78', Kruszelnicki P. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
83', Nagamatsu S. ↓, Ceglarz P. ↑,
83', Ventura D. ↓, Szwoch M. ↑,
87', Karasinski S. ↓, Preisler D. ↑,
87', Szwedzik P. ↓, Rosol M. ↑,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 8 and 15).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Ruch Chorzów may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ruch Chorzów is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ruch Chorzów won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Ruch Chorzów won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Outrights of Polish Division 1 for now

Ruch Chorzow: 4.51% Stal Mielec: 0.41%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Ruch Chorzow	9	3	3	3	9:11	-2	12
16	Stal Mielec	9	2	3	4	14:23	-9	9

Last Results with these Odds

Stal Mielec - the odds 3.2 are the expected chance of winning is 28.7%, but this team recently wins 20% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Ruch Chorzów
Polish Division 1
08.03.26	Polonia Bytom - Ruch Chorzów	0:1 ✺
27.02.26	Stal Rzeszów - Ruch Chorzów	0:1 ✺
21.02.26	Ruch Chorzów - Polonia Warsaw	2:3 ✺
13.02.26	Pogoń Siedlce - Ruch Chorzów	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Ruch Chorzów - Śląsk Wrocław	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWLLT
- Stal Mielec
Polish Division 1
06.03.26	Stal Mielec - GKS Tychy	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Odra Opole - Stal Mielec	0:2 ✺
23.02.26	Stal Mielec - ŁKS Łódź	1:2 ✺
13.02.26	Górnik Łęczna - Stal Mielec	1:1 ✺
08.02.26	Polonia Warsaw - Stal Mielec	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Division 1
31.08.25	Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów	2:2
Polish Ekstraklasa
10.03.24	Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów	3:1
01.09.23	Ruch Chorzów - Stal Mielec	1:1
Polish Division 1
17.11.17	Ruch Chorzów - Stal Mielec	1:2
28.07.17	Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów	1:0

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