Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 29

Date: 22 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Musial T. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 8
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV
World	Onefootball


	Stal Mielec		Górnik Zabrze

	1	X	2
	2.63	3.4	2.5	Watch
	2.65	3.3	2.5
	2.75	3.4	2.43	Watch
	2.73	3.55	2.56
	2.81	3.39	2.51	Watch
	2.7	3.25	2.45
	2.72	3.4	2.48	Watch
	2.75	3.4	2.43
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.72 ↑ (2.49)	3.39 ↑ (3.23)	2.48 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
34.5%

Draw
27.7%

Górnik Zabrze
37.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.3%

28.8%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

27.8%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

Górnik Zabrze has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Górnik Zabrze, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30.8%	15.4%	53.8%

Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 4 - 36.4%). Górnik Zabrze will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 9.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Górnik Zabrze: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 50%) .

O/U 5.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.25 - Górnik Zabrze (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Górnik Zabrze will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Górnik Zabrze (votes: 5 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. (C) 21. Matras M. 3. Esselink B. 27. Jaunzems A. 6. Guillaumier M. 26. Hannola P. 11. Wolkowicz K. 32. Gerbowski F. 14. Cavaleiro I. 25. Wolsztynski L.	1. Majchrowicz F. (G) 5. Szczesniak K. 27. Szala D. 26. Janicki R. 20. Josema 11. Ismaheel T. 8. Hellebrand P. 21. Sarapata D. 88. Furukawa Y. 7. Zahovic L. 10. Podolski L. (C)
Substitutes
9. Assayag R. 33. Bukowski A. 96. Dadok R. 10. Domanski M. 23. Getinger K. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 92. Kadzior D. 20. Knap K. 15. Senger M.	18. Ambros L. 9. Bakis S. 44. Buksa A. 81. Kmet M. 23. Liseth S. 16. Olkowski P. 38. Prebsl F. 30. Sow O. 25. Szromnik M. (G)
Coaches
Djurdjevic I.	Gierczak P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Jaunzems A. 🟨,
19', Wlazlo P. 🟨,
45+3', Cavaleiro I. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Gerbowski F. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
54', Szala D. ↓, Olkowski P. ↑,
63', Hannola P. ↓, Knap K. ↑,
63', Zahovic L. ↓, Ambros L. ↑,
63', Furukawa Y. ↓, Sow O. ↑,
69', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
69', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
77', Wlazlo P. 🟨,
89', Podolski L. ↓, Liseth S. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 9).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 2.

Stal Mielec has a series of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Górnik Zabrze is playing unpredictable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

The chances to win of two teams are almost the same in this match.

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Janza E. (Suspended)

There are questionable in Górnik Zabrze: Lukoszek K. (Inactive)

Last 11 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 7 matches and goals 11:17 (average 1:1.5).

Including matches at home between the teams Stal Mielec won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4:8 (average 0.8:1.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
14.04.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Stal Mielec	3:2 ✺
04.04.25	Stal Mielec - Cracovia	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Motor Lublin - Stal Mielec	4:1 ✺
15.03.25	Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław	1:4 ✺
08.03.25	Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 LTLLL
- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Ekstraklasa
11.04.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze	2:1 ✺
06.04.25	Górnik Zabrze - Legia Warsaw	1:2 ✺
30.03.25	GKS Katowice - Górnik Zabrze	2:1 ✺
15.03.25	Górnik Zabrze - Motor Lublin	4:0 ✺
09.03.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
20.10.24	Górnik Zabrze - Stal Mielec	3:1
11.05.24	Górnik Zabrze - Stal Mielec	1:1
12.11.23	Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze	2:1
26.02.23	Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze	0:1
13.08.22	Górnik Zabrze - Stal Mielec	1:3
05.02.22	Stal Mielec - Górnik Zabrze	1:2
07.08.21	Górnik Zabrze - Stal Mielec	1:0

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