Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 18

Date: 5 December 2025, Friday

Location: Polsat Plus Arena (Gdansk)

Referee: Malec P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 3
Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports XTRA Espanol
Croatia	Arena Sport 5, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport, Ekstraklasa TV
Ukraine	Sport 1
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports US XTRA Espanol, Fanatiz, Tubi TV
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Lechia Gdańsk		Górnik Zabrze

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.6	3.6	Watch
	1.92	3.55	3.55	Watch
	1.95	3.77	3.93
	2	3.65	3.58	Watch
	1.91	3.5	3.7
	1.9	3.74	3.85	Watch
	1.88	3.66	3.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↓ (2.64)	3.64 ↑ (3.09)	3.72 ↑ (2.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lechia Gdańsk
49%

Draw
25.8%

Górnik Zabrze
25.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.8%

28.9%

37.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.6%

28.7%

37.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lechia Gdańsk has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Lechia Gdańsk's performance.

Górnik Zabrze has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Górnik Zabrze might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lechia Gdańsk than the current prediction. (-15.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Lechia Gdańsk that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Górnik Zabrze than the current prediction. (+12.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Górnik Zabrze could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	9.5%	19%

Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Lechia will win (votes: 15 - 75%). Górnik Zabrze will win (votes: 3 - 15%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 10%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Lechia: 56% – 94%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Górnik Zabrze (2.35) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lechia (votes: 1 - 50%). Górnik Zabrze (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
18. Paulsen A. (G) 33. Wojtowicz T. 15. Dyachuk M. 80. Rodin M. 27. Vojtko M. 11. Mena C. 10. Kapic R. (C) 99. Neugebauer T. 8. Cirkovic A. 89. Bobcek T. 79. Sezonienko K.	99. Loska T. (G) 5. Szczesniak K. 26. Janicki R. 55. Pingot M. 64. Janza E. 28. Donio B. 8. Hellebrand P. 79. Goh Young-Jun 30. Sow O. 23. Liseth S. 33. Khlan M.
Substitutes
72. Awad M. 21. Glogowski M. 23. Kalahur M. 2. Kludka B. 90. Kurminowski D. 3. Olsson E. 4. Pllana B. 88. Szczepankiewicz B. 17. Tsarenko A. 7. Viunnyk B. 1. Weirauch S. (G)	22. Abdullahi A. 25. Balabuch A. (G) 19. Dziegielewski N. 9. Gabriel Barbosa 20. Josema 81. Kmet M. 1. Lubik M. (G) 17. Lukoszek K. 15. Massimo R. 16. Olkowski P. 10. Podolski L. 7. Zahovic L.
Coaches
Carver J.	Gasparik M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 2)
7', 1 - 0, Bobcek T. ⚽, Cirkovic A. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Hellebrand P. ⚽,
45+4', 2 - 1, Sezonienko K. ⚽, Vojtko M. (A),
45+8', 3 - 1, Sezonienko K. ⚽, Bobcek T. (A),
45+13', Neugebauer T. 🟨,
45+17', 3 - 2, Janicki R. (Penalty Awarded),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Donio B. ↓, Lukoszek K. ↑,
54', Cirkovic A. 🟨,
56', Kapic R. 🟨,
60', 4 - 2, Bobcek T. ⚽, Cirkovic A. (A),
68', Goh Young-Jun ↓, Podolski L. ↑,
69', Szczesniak K. ↓, Kmet M. ↑,
69', Cirkovic A. ↓, Viunnyk B. ↑,
69', Bobcek T. ↓, Kurminowski D. ↑,
71', 5 - 2, Viunnyk B. ⚽, Neugebauer T. (A),
83', Khlan M. ↓, Dziegielewski N. ↑,
89', Sow O. ↓, Abdullahi A. ↑,
90+2', Dyachuk M. 🟨,
90+2', Dziegielewski N. 🟨,
90+2', Rodin M. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Lechia has had a series of home games.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Lechia: Jaunzems A. (Muscle Injury)

There will not play in Górnik Zabrze: Sacek M. (Leg Injury) Szala D. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Górnik Zabrze: Massimo R. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Lechia won 8 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 31:24. (average 1.6:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Lechia won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 14:10. (average 1.6:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lechia Gdańsk
Polish Cup
02.12.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.11.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Termalica Nieciecza	5:1 ✺
22.11.25	Legia Warsaw - Lechia Gdańsk	2:2 ✺
08.11.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Widzew Łódź	2:1 ✺
03.11.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Radomiak Radom	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWTWL
- Górnik Zabrze
Polish Cup
02.12.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze	1:3 ✺
Polish Ekstraklasa
28.11.25	Radomiak Radom - Górnik Zabrze	4:0 ✺
21.11.25	Górnik Zabrze - Wisła Płock	1:1 ✺
07.11.25	Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze	2:0 ✺
02.11.25	Górnik Zabrze - Arka Gdynia	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Polish Cup
02.12.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze	1:3
Polish Ekstraklasa
20.07.25	Górnik Zabrze - Lechia Gdańsk	2:1
09.03.25	Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze	1:2
01.09.24	Górnik Zabrze - Lechia Gdańsk	2:3
04.02.23	Górnik Zabrze - Lechia Gdańsk	1:1
18.11.22	Lechia Gdańsk - Górnik Zabrze	2:1
18.04.22	Górnik Zabrze - Lechia Gdańsk	1:3

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