Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 27

Date: 4 April 2025, Friday

Location: Stadion Miejski przy Solskiego 1 w Mielcu (Mielec)

Referee: Lasyk P. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
Finland	Veikkaus TV
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
Serbia	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 3
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Stal Mielec		Cracovia

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.4	2.75	Watch
	2.5	3.4	2.65
	2.41	3.4	2.8	Watch
	2.47	3.4	2.84	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.7
	2.41	3.44	2.81	Watch
	2.41	3.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.45 (2.45)	3.38 ↑ (3.31)	2.76 ↓ (2.8)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Mielec
38.3%

Draw
27.7%

Cracovia
34%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.2%

28.3%

33.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

28.9%

32.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Cracovia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cracovia than the current prediction. (-1.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
46.2%	7.7%	46.2%

Stal Mielec - Cracovia Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Stal Mielec will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). Cracovia will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stal Mielec: 19.1% – 73.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Stal Mielec (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Cracovia (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - yes (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. 21. Matras M. 3. Esselink B. 96. Dadok R. 10. Domanski M. 26. Hannola P. 23. Getinger K. (C) 32. Gerbowski F. 14. Cavaleiro I. 25. Wolsztynski L.	13. Madejski S. (G) 24. Jugas J. 4. Henriksson G. 5. Ghita V. 25. Kakabadze O. (C) 23. Bzdyl F. 11. Maigaard M. 19. Olafsson D. 14. Hasic A. 10. Minchev M. 9. Kallman B.
Substitutes
9. Assayag R. 7. Beauguel J. 33. Bukowski A. 6. Guillaumier M. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 27. Jaunzems A. 92. Kadzior D. 15. Senger M. 19. Tkacz D.	6. Al Ammari A. 16. Biedrzycki B. 77. Janasik P. 39. Perkovic M. 27. Ravas H. (G) 63. Rozga F. 21. Smiglewski K. 88. Sokolowski P. 66. Wojcik O.
Coaches
Djurdjevic I.	Kroczek D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
11', 1 - 0, Wolsztynski L. ⚽, Cavaleiro I. (A),
37', Minchev M. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Bzdyl F. ↓, Biedrzycki B. ↑,
46', Olafsson D. ↓, Al Ammari A. ↑,
49', Dadok R. 🟨,
51', Minchev M. ↓, Rozga F. ↑,
53', Henriksson G. 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Kallman B. ⚽,
60', Gerbowski F. ↓, Tkacz D. ↑,
71', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Beauguel J. ↑,
82', Dadok R. ↓, Jaunzems A. ↑,
82', Domanski M. ↓, Bukowski A. ↑,
82', Cavaleiro I. ↓, Kadzior D. ↑,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 16 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1 and 6).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 1.

Stal Mielec has a chain of defeats in the last matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Recent matches Cracovia is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Cracovia: Glik K. (Knee Injury)

Last 12 head-to-head matches Stal Mielec won 1 matches, drawn 8 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:17 (average 1.3:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Stal Mielec won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 7:8 (average 1:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
30.03.25	Motor Lublin - Stal Mielec	4:1 ✺
15.03.25	Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław	1:4 ✺
08.03.25	Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec	3:1 ✺
01.03.25	Stal Mielec - Korona Kielce	0:1 ✺
21.02.25	Piast Gliwice - Stal Mielec	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLLT
- Cracovia Krakow
Polish Ekstraklasa
29.03.25	Cracovia - Puszcza Niepołomice	3:1 ✺
14.03.25	Pogoń Szczecin - Cracovia	5:2 ✺
08.03.25	Cracovia - Radomiak Radom	1:2 ✺
28.02.25	Górnik Zabrze - Cracovia	0:1 ✺
23.02.25	Cracovia - Jagiellonia Białystok	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
30.09.24	Cracovia - Stal Mielec	1:1
09.12.23	Cracovia - Stal Mielec	2:2
22.07.23	Stal Mielec - Cracovia	2:2
17.02.23	Cracovia - Stal Mielec	2:1
05.08.22	Stal Mielec - Cracovia	2:0
01.04.22	Stal Mielec - Cracovia	1:2
02.10.21	Cracovia - Stal Mielec	3:3

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