Match Info

Ekstraklasa - Round 26

Date: 30 March 2025, Sunday

Location: Motor Lublin Arena (Lublin)

Referee: Kuzma L. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Arena Sport 3
Croatia	Arena Sport 7, MAXtv To Go
Poland	CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV
Slovakia	JOJ Play, JOJ Sport 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV


	Motor Lublin		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	3.3	Watch
	2.15	3.5	3.1
	2.07	3.5	3.35	Watch
	2.06	3.57	3.41
	2.1	3.61	3.38	Watch
	2.15	3.4	3
	2.13	3.45	3.35	Watch
	2.07	3.5	3.35
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.1 ↓ (2.12)	3.49 ↓ (3.55)	3.28 ↑ (3.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Motor Lublin
44.6%

Draw
26.9%

Stal Mielec
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.2%

26.4%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.9%

26%

28.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Motor Lublin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motor Lublin than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	8.3%	16.7%

Motor Lublin - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Motor will win (votes: 9 - 75%). Stal Mielec will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Motor: 50.5% – 99.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rosa K. (G) 17. Wojcik F. 18. Najemski A. 42. Ede B. 24. Luberecki F. 21. Labojko J. 26. Krol M. 68. Wolski B. (C) 22. Simon C. 19. Van Hoeven B. 90. Mraz S.	39. Madrzyk J. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. (C) 21. Matras M. 15. Senger M. 27. Jaunzems A. 26. Hannola P. 6. Guillaumier M. 11. Wolkowicz K. 92. Kadzior D. 96. Dadok R. 9. Assayag R.
Substitutes
11. Caliskaner K. 45. Jez O. (G) 30. Ndiaye M. J. 47. Palacz K. 6. Samper S. 37. Scalet M. 7. Sefer A. 28. Stolarski P. 9. Welniak K.	33. Bukowski A. 14. Cavaleiro I. 10. Domanski M. 3. Esselink B. 32. Gerbowski F. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 20. Knap K. 44. Krykun S. 25. Wolsztynski L.
Coaches
Stolarski M.	Niedzwiedz J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
21', Guillaumier M. 🟨,
28', 1 - 0, Madrzyk J. (Own goal),
2nd Half (3 - 1)
49', 2 - 0, Ede B. ⚽, Wolski B. (A),
60', Guillaumier M. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
60', Kadzior D. ↓, Krykun S. ↑,
60', 3 - 0, Labojko J. ⚽,
62', Labojko J. ↓, Samper S. ↑,
62', Van Hoeven B. ↓, Ndiaye M. J. ↑,
69', Najemski A. 🟨,
70', Wojcik F. ↓, Stolarski P. ↑,
70', Najemski A. ↓, Scalet M. ↑,
70', Senger M. ↓, Esselink B. ↑,
71', Dadok R. ↓, Cavaleiro I. ↑,
78', Simon C. ↓, Sefer A. ↑,
82', 4 - 0, Mraz S. ⚽, Krol M. (A),
83', Assayag R. ↓, Wolsztynski L. ↑,
90+8', 4 - 1, Wolkowicz K. ⚽, Cavaleiro I. (A),

Preview

In this match we will have an opportunity to see a game between team from the middle of a tournament table and a the outsider (ranked 8 and 15).

Recent matches Motor is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Stal Mielec has a line of defeats in latest matches (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

Motor will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Motor: Bartos M. (Yellow Cards) Brkic I. (Knee Injury) Kruk K. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury) Kadzior D. (Red Card) Knap K. (Injury)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Motor won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0:2 (average 0:1).

Including matches at home between the teams Motor won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0:1

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Motor Lublin
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.25	Górnik Zabrze - Motor Lublin	4:0 ✺
10.03.25	Motor Lublin - Legia Warsaw	3:3 ✺
02.03.25	Puszcza Niepołomice - Motor Lublin	0:1 ✺
24.02.25	Motor Lublin - GKS Katowice	3:2 ✺
16.02.25	Jagiellonia Białystok - Motor Lublin	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.1 LTWWL
- Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa
15.03.25	Stal Mielec - Śląsk Wrocław	1:4 ✺
08.03.25	Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec	3:1 ✺
01.03.25	Stal Mielec - Korona Kielce	0:1 ✺
21.02.25	Piast Gliwice - Stal Mielec	2:2 ✺
16.02.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Szczecin	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 LLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Polish Ekstraklasa
22.09.24	Stal Mielec - Motor Lublin	1:0
Polish Division 2 - East
21.05.14	Motor Lublin - Stal Mielec	0:1

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