Match Info

Division 1 - Round 11

Date: 27 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Stadion Miejski w Rzeszowie (Rzeszow)

Referee: Kwiatkowski T. (Pol)

Where to Watch on TV:


Poland	sport.tvp.pl, TVP 3, TVP Sport app


	Stal Rzeszów		Stal Mielec

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.6	3	Watch
	2.2	3.65	2.82
	2.15	3.95	3
	2.09	3.76	3.08	Watch
	2.21	3.62	2.83
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.96)	3.72 ↓ (3.85)	2.95 ↓ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stal Rzeszów
43.4%

Draw
25%

Stal Mielec
31.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.8%

23.8%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.3%

23.6%

29.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stal Rzeszów has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Stal Mielec has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Rzeszów than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Stal Rzeszów - Stal Mielec Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Stal Rzeszów will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Stal Mielec will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
88. Koziol M. (G) 2. Warczak P. 3. Krasovskiy V. 4. Synos M. 77. Kukulka K. 31. Thill S. (C) 7. Lysiak K. 21. Kadziolka S. 46. Lyczko S. 10. Jonathan Junior 25. Wolski F.	1. Matys M. (G) 18. Wlazlo P. 44. Puerto I. 15. Senger M. 20. Szeliga B. 6. Pisek J. 10. Domanski M. (C) 17. Mazurek D. 9. Losada M. 11. Odolak K. 90. Kruszelnicki P.
Substitutes
20. Kucharski J. 9. Masiak K. 19. Musik M. 24. Polap D. 23. Postupalskyi I. 17. Slawinski O. 44. Soja M. 18. Wachowiak K. 50. Wolff F. (G)	33. Bukowski A. 27. Diez A. 32. Gerbowski F. 13. Jalocha K. (G) 3. Kowalik P. 8. Niedzwiedz N. 77. Sadlocha K. 23. Sommerfeld K. 16. Szady N.
Coaches
Zub M.	Djurdjevic I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', 1 - 0, Jonathan Junior ⚽, Lysiak K. (A),
45+2', Puerto I. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
59', Wolski F. ↓, Wachowiak K. ↑,
59', Odolak K. ↓, Sadlocha K. ↑,
61', 2 - 0, Lyczko S. ⚽,
68', Puerto I. ↓, Gerbowski F. ↑,
69', 2 - 1, Losada M. ⚽,
81', Lyczko S. ↓, Masiak K. ↑,
84', Jonathan Junior 🟨,
84', Senger M. ↓, Diez A. ↑,
84', Mazurek D. ↓, Sommerfeld K. ↑,
85', Jonathan Junior ↓, Slawinski O. ↑,
89', 3 - 1, Masiak K. ⚽, Thill S. (A),
90+2', 3 - 2, Domanski M. ⚽, Kruszelnicki P. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stal Rzeszów won 0.

Stal Rzeszów has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Stal Mielec's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Stal Rzeszów won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 11:24. (average 1.2:2.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Stal Rzeszów won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stal Rzeszów
Polish Cup
23.09.25	Stal Rzeszów - Korona Kielce	0:1 ✺
Polish Division 1
19.09.25	Odra Opole - Stal Rzeszów	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Stal Rzeszów - Znicz Pruszków	1:0 ✺
30.08.25	Górnik Łęczna - Stal Rzeszów	0:4 ✺
23.08.25	Stal Rzeszów - Miedź Legnica	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LLWWL
- Stal Mielec
Polish Cup
23.09.25	Stal Mielec - Puszcza Niepołomice	1:2 ✺
Polish Division 1
19.09.25	Stal Mielec - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki	1:2 ✺
15.09.25	Wieczysta Kraków - Stal Mielec	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Stal Mielec - Ruch Chorzów	2:2 ✺
25.08.25	GKS Tychy - Stal Mielec	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
12.07.24	Stal Rzeszów - Stal Mielec	0:5
15.07.23	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	3:2
24.03.23	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	1:1
25.11.22	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	1:0
10.07.21	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	5:1
06.02.20	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	1:3
04.07.18	Stal Mielec - Stal Rzeszów	5:0

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