Match Info

League One - Round 3

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Lamex Stadium (Stevenage)

Referee: Reeves T. (Eng)


	Stevenage Borough		Northampton Town

	1	X	2
	1.7	3.25	5.5	Watch
	1.71	3.5	5
	1.72	3.45	4.95	Watch
	1.73	3.49	5.64
	1.76	3.16	5.42	Watch
	1.67	3.3	5
	1.75	3.44	5.25	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.8)	3.37 ↓ (3.42)	5.25 ↑ (4.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stevenage Borough
54.4%

Draw
27.8%

Northampton Town
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

27.6%

19.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.3%

27.2%

19.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stevenage Borough has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Northampton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stevenage Borough than the current prediction. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Northampton Town than the current prediction. (+1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
82.4%	5.9%	11.8%

Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town Predictions

Users Predictions: Stevenage Borough will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stevenage Borough will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Marschall F. (G) 2. James-Wildin L. 15. Goode C. 5. Piergianni C. (C) 3. Butler D. 4. Houghton J. 18. White H. 11. Roberts J. 10. Kemp D. 20. Campbell C. 19. Reid J.	1. Burge L. (G) 2. Burroughs J. 18. Forbes M. 35. Dyche M. 3. McCarthy C. 14. Fornah T. 10. List E. 8. McGeehan C. 4. Campbell D. 7. Hoskins S. (C) 19. Wheatley E.
Substitutes
9. Ahadme G. 13. Ashby-Hammond T. (G) 24. Malcolm J. 17. Pattenden J. 44. Patterson P. 8. Phillips D. 6. Sweeney D.	34. Fitzsimons R. (G) 12. Guinness-Walker N. 33. Ireland M. 21. Perkins J. 23. Taylor T. 6. Willis J. 16. Wormleighton J.
Coaches
Revell A.	Nolan K.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
20', Piergianni C. 🟨,
33', Butler D. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
60', Campbell C. ↓, Patterson P. ↑,
63', McGeehan C. ↓, Taylor T. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Kemp D. ⚽, Houghton J. (A),
77', List E. ↓, Guinness-Walker N. ↑,
80', White H. ↓, Phillips D. ↑,
81', Reid J. ↓, Ahadme G. ↑,
82', 2 - 0, Ahadme G. ⚽, Kemp D. (A),
89', Roberts J. ↓, Pattenden J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 3.

Stevenage has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Northampton is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Stevenage is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Northampton: Eaves T. (Thigh Injury) Guthrie J. (Knee Injury) Shaw L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Stevenage: Young J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Northampton: Thorniley J. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Stevenage won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 17:22. (average 1:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Stevenage won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:12. (average 1.6:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Northampton Town - the odds 4.75 are the expected chance of winning is 19.88%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stevenage Borough
English League Cup
12.08.25	Charlton Athletic - Stevenage Borough	3:1 ✺
English League One
09.08.25	Stevenage Borough - Rotherham United	1:0 ✺
02.08.25	Blackpool - Stevenage Borough	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Stevenage Borough - Milton Keynes Dons	2:1 ✺
19.07.25	Swansea City - Stevenage Borough	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LWWWL
- Northampton Town
English League Cup
12.08.25	Northampton Town - Southampton	0:1 ✺
English League One
09.08.25	Northampton Town - Bradford City	0:0 ✺
02.08.25	Wigan Athletic - Northampton Town	3:1 ✺
Club Friendly
26.07.25	Northampton Town - Birmingham City	3:0 ✺
15.07.25	Millwall - Northampton Town	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LTLWL

Latest Head to Head

English League One
01.01.25	Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough	0:0
03.12.24	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	2:0
26.12.23	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	3:0
05.08.23	Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough	0:1
English League Two
01.04.23	Northampton Town - Stevenage Borough	1:1
22.10.22	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	2:3
15.03.22	Stevenage Borough - Northampton Town	1:2

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