Match Info

ENGLAND: SOUTHERN LEAGUE CENTRAL DIVISION - ROUND 20

Date: 22 November 2022, Tuesday


	Stourbridge		Hednesford Town

	1	X	2
	2	3.4	3.1
	2.06	3.05	3.1
	2.05	3.3	3.1
	2.15	3.3	3.31
	2.05	3.3	3.2
	2.03	3.52	3.16
	2.05	3.3	3.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.06 ↑ (1.67)	3.31 ↓ (3.73)	3.17 ↓ (4.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stourbridge
44.1%

Draw
27.4%

Hednesford Town
28.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.9%

24.2%

22%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.5%

23.1%

21%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stourbridge has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Stourbridge's form might have worsened.

Hednesford Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hednesford Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stourbridge than the current prediction. (+12.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Stourbridge, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hednesford Town than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hednesford Town, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
54.5%	27.3%	18.2%

Stourbridge - Hednesford Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Stourbridge will win (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Hednesford will win (votes: 2 - 18.2%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Stourbridge: 25.1% – 83.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 14 and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Stourbridge won 1.

Recent matches Stourbridge is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Hednesford is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Stourbridge could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Stourbridge have a series of guest games.

In this match Stourbridge is a favorite.

Last 13 head-to-head matches Stourbridge won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 15-18.

Including matches at home between the teams Stourbridge won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stourbridge FC
English Southern League Central Division
19.11.22	Rushden & Diamonds - Stourbridge	1:3 ✺
12.11.22	Rushall Olympic - Stourbridge	2:0 ✺
08.11.22	Mickleover Sports - Stourbridge	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
29.10.22	Hednesford Town - Stourbridge	4:2 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
25.10.22	Ilkeston - Stourbridge	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLTLW
- Hednesford Town
English FA Trophy
19.11.22	Coalville Town - Hednesford Town	2:0 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
12.11.22	Kings Langley - Hednesford Town	2:1 ✺
05.11.22	Hednesford Town - Leiston	1:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
29.10.22	Hednesford Town - Stourbridge	4:2 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
25.10.22	Hednesford Town - Barwell	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LLLWT

Latest Head to Head

English FA Trophy
29.10.22	Hednesford Town - Stourbridge	4:2
English Southern League Central Division
16.08.22	Hednesford Town - Stourbridge	0:0
29.03.22	Hednesford Town - Stourbridge	3:1
16.08.21	Stourbridge - Hednesford Town	1:2
19.09.20	Hednesford Town - Stourbridge	1:4
25.01.20	Hednesford Town - Stourbridge	1:2
17.08.19	Stourbridge - Hednesford Town	0:3

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