Match Info

Bundesliga - Championship Group - Round 24

Date: 20 March 2026, Friday 🏁 Finished

Location: Merkur-Arena (Graz) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Weinberger J. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Austria	19:30	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1
Germany	19:30	Sky Go Germany
Israel	20:30	5 GOLD Israel
Slovakia	19:30	Arena sport 2
Slovenia	19:30	SportKlub 6
International	18:30	Onefootball


	Sturm Graz		Red Bull Salzburg

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.6	1.96	Watch
	3.4	3.5	2
	3.45	3.55	1.98
	3.74	3.69	2.02
	3.63	3.71	1.97	Watch
	3.5	3.4	1.95
	3.54	3.54	1.99	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.54 ↑ (2.88)	3.57 ↑ (3.43)	1.98 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sturm Graz
26.5%

Draw
26.2%

Red Bull Salzburg
47.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.3%

27.2%

40.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

26.2%

39%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Sturm Graz's form might have worsened.

Red Bull Salzburg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Red Bull Salzburg's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sturm Graz, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Red Bull Salzburg than the current prediction. (-8.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Red Bull Salzburg, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	6.7%	60%

Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Sturm will win (votes: 5 - 33.3%). Salzburg will win (votes: 9 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Salzburg: 35.2% – 84.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Salzburg (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Sturm (1.81) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Sturm (2.24) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Sturm (2.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Salzburg (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
40. Bignetti M. (G) 23. Malic A. 2. Mitchell J. 5. Vallci A. 43. Hodl J. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 80. Fosso R. 17. Karic E. 10. Kiteishvili O. 20. Jatta S. 15. Mamageishvili G.	1. Schlager A. (G) 21. Drexler T. 91. Chase A. 44. Schuster J. 3. Terzic A. 18. Bidstrup M. (C) 5. Diabate S. 13. Kratzig F. 20. Baidoo E. 19. Konate K. 11. Vertessen Y.
Substitutes
47. Aiwu E. 35. Geyrhofer N. 25. Hierlander S. 11. Kayombo A. 53. Khudyakov D. (G) 77. Malone M. 8. Rozga F. 39. Weinhandl L. 9. Wilson R.	27. Alajbegovic K. 15. Diambou M. 92. Hamzic S. (G) 8. Kitano S. 25. Lukic O. 9. Onisiwo K. 24. Redzic D. 37. Trummer T. 49. Yeo M. K.
Coaches
Ingolitsch F.	Beichler D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
13', Mamageishvili G. 🟨,
32', 0 - 1, Vertessen Y. ⚽, Bidstrup M. (A),
38', Vertessen Y. 🟨,
39', Mitchell J. ↓, Aiwu E. ↑,
45+5', 1 - 1, Gorenc Stankovic J. ⚽, Vallci A. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
51', Kiteishvili O. 🟨,
70', Mamageishvili G. ↓, Malone M. ↑,
70', Hodl J. ↓, Rozga F. ↑,
74', Drexler T. 🟨,
74', Vertessen Y. ↓, Kitano S. ↑,
74', Fosso R. 🟨,
75', Baidoo E. ↓, Redzic D. ↑,
77', Chase A. 🟨,
83', Kratzig F. ↓, Yeo M. K. ↑,
85', Konate K. ↓, Onisiwo K. ↑,
87', Diabate S. 🟨,
87', Fosso R. ↓, Weinhandl L. ↑,
87', Jatta S. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
90+1', Chase A. 🟨,

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 3.

Sturm is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Salzburg is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Salzburg could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Sturm won 8 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 33:31. (average 1.7:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Sturm won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.9:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Salzburg	10	7	3	0	24:5	19	24
4	Sturm Graz	10	5	3	2	18:12	6	18

Outrights of Austrian Bundesliga for now

Salzburg: 52.46% Sturm Graz: 6.38%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
15.03.26	Austria Wien - Sturm Graz	2:5 ✺
08.03.26	Sturm Graz - Rheindorf Altach	2:0 ✺
01.03.26	Wolfsberger - Sturm Graz	2:2 ✺
22.02.26	Sturm Graz - Blau-Weiss Linz	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WWTWL
- Red Bull Salzburg
Austrian Bundesliga
15.03.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Rapid Wien	0:1 ✺
08.03.26	Rapid Wien - Red Bull Salzburg	1:0 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
04.03.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Rheindorf Altach	0:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
01.03.26	Red Bull Salzburg - Hartberg	0:0 ✺
22.02.26	LASK Linz - Red Bull Salzburg	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
09.11.25	Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg	1:1
20.09.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz	0:2
09.05.25	Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg	4:2
13.04.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz	1:2
02.03.25	Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz	3:1
06.10.24	Sturm Graz - Red Bull Salzburg	5:0
28.04.24	Red Bull Salzburg - Sturm Graz	2:2

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