Match Info

Bundesliga - Round 21

Date: 1 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Lavanttal-Arena (Wolfsberg)

Referee: Lechner H. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria 1, Sky Sport Austria 3
Russia	TV Start, TV Start Triumph
World	Onefootball


	Wolfsberger		Sturm Graz

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.3	2.55	Watch
	2.45	3.3	2.7
	2.58	3.35	2.62
	2.65	3.42	2.75
	2.57	3.38	2.72	Watch
	2.5	3.2	2.63
	2.82	3.4	2.55	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.59 ↓ (2.68)	3.34 ↑ (3.15)	2.65 ↑ (2.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Wolfsberger
36.3%

Draw
28.2%

Sturm Graz
35.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34%

28.9%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

29.3%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Wolfsberger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

Sturm Graz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Wolfsberger than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (+2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
15.4%	15.4%	69.2%

Wolfsberger - Sturm Graz Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Wolfsberger will win (votes: 2 - 15.4%). Sturm will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sturm: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 2 - 50%). Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Sturm (1.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Sturm (votes: 3 - 60%). Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Polster N. (G) 22. Baumgartner D. (C) 15. Diabate C. 37. Wimmer N. 2. Matic B. 30. Sulzner M. 23. Kujovic E. 77. Renner R. 20. Zukic D. 17. Atanga D. 9. Kojzek E.	40. Bignetti M. (G) 5. Vallci A. 17. Karic E. 30. Koller P. 43. Hodl J. 80. Fosso R. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 23. Malic A. 26. Beganovic B. 77. Malone M. 20. Jatta S.
Substitutes
34. Agyeman E. 35. Chukwu E. 25. Drame A. 7. Gattermayer A. 13. Gruber T. 1. Gutlbauer L. (G) 8. Piesinger S. 31. Wohlmuth F.	47. Aiwu E. 35. Geyrhofer N. 25. Hierlander S. 11. Kayombo A. 10. Kiteishvili O. 41. Lorenz E. (G) 8. Rozga F. 39. Weinhandl L. 9. Wilson R.
Coaches
Atalan I.	Ingolitsch F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2', Jatta S. 🟨,
19', 1 - 0, Matic B. ⚽, Kojzek E. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 2)
49', Kujovic E. 🟨,
51', 2 - 0, Kojzek E. ⚽, Sulzner M. (A),
59', Karic E. ↓, Rozga F. ↑,
59', Beganovic B. ↓, Kayombo A. ↑,
60', Fosso R. 🟨,
61', Diabate C. 🟥,
67', Malone M. ↓, Kiteishvili O. ↑,
68', 2 - 1, Kiteishvili O. (Penalty Awarded),
69', Rozga F. 🟨,
69', Atanga D. ↓, Wohlmuth F. ↑,
73', Kiteishvili O. (Penalty Awarded),
73', 2 - 2, Kiteishvili O. ⚽,
73', Kayombo A. 🟨,
80', Renner R. 🟨,
83', Gorenc Stankovic J. 🟨,
86', Fosso R. ↓, Weinhandl L. ↑,
86', Jatta S. ↓, Wilson R. ↑,
87', Kojzek E. ↓, Piesinger S. ↑,
87', Kujovic E. ↓, Chukwu E. ↑,
90+3', Zukic D. ↓, Agyeman E. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Bundesliga (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Bundesliga (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Wolfsberger won 3.

Wolfsberger is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Sturm has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Wolfsberger may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Wolfsberger: Avdijaj D. (Injury) Ngankam J. (Hamstring Injury) Pink M. (Injury)

There will not play in Sturm: Gazibegovic J. (Injury) Grgic L. (Knee Injury) Khudyakov D. (Inactive) Kiteishvili O. (Injury) Lavalee D. (Knee Injury) Mitchell J. (Red Card)

There are questionable in Sturm: Mamageishvili G. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Wolfsberger won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 32:30. (average 1.6:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Wolfsberger won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1.1:1.4).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sturm Graz	8	4	2	2	10:9	1	14
11	Wolfsberger AC	7	1	2	4	7:13	-6	5

Last Results with these Odds

Wolfsberger - the odds 2.68 are the expected chance of winning is 34%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Sturm Graz - the odds 2.45 are the expected chance of winning is 37.12%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Wolfsberger AC
Austrian Bundesliga
21.02.26	Rapid Wien - Wolfsberger	2:0 ✺
15.02.26	Blau-Weiss Linz - Wolfsberger	2:1 ✺
08.02.26	Wolfsberger - Grazer AK	2:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
01.02.26	Wolfsberger - Red Bull Salzburg	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
25.01.26	Wolfsberger - Aluminij Kidricevo	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.5 LLTLW
- Sturm Graz
Austrian Bundesliga
22.02.26	Sturm Graz - Blau-Weiss Linz	1:0 ✺
14.02.26	Swarovski Tirol - Sturm Graz	1:0 ✺
08.02.26	Sturm Graz - Ried	1:0 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
01.02.26	Rheindorf Altach - Sturm Graz	3:1 ET ✺
UEFA Europa League
29.01.26	Sturm Graz - Brann	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
26.10.25	Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger	1:3
24.05.25	Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger	1:1
30.03.25	Wolfsberger - Sturm Graz	1:1
15.02.25	Wolfsberger - Sturm Graz	3:0
22.09.24	Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger	0:3
03.03.24	Sturm Graz - Wolfsberger	4:0
08.10.23	Wolfsberger - Sturm Graz	1:2

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