Match Info

AUSTRIA: BUNDESLIGA - ROUND 4

Date: 19 August 2023, Saturday

Location: Planet Pure Stadion (Lustenau)

Referee: Spurny J. (Aut)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Sky Sport
Slovakia	Arena sport 2
Ukraine	Sport 2


	Austria Lustenau		Sturm Graz

	1	X	2
	8.5	4.75	1.36	Watch
	7.5	5	1.36	Watch
	7.5	5	1.35
	7.5	5	1.37
	8.08	5.37	1.38
	7	4.6	1.3
	7.8	5.15	1.36	Watch
	7.6	5.4	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	7.69 ↑ (5.6)	5.03 ↑ (4.55)	1.36 ↓ (1.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Austria Lustenau
12.2%

Draw
18.6%

Sturm Graz
69.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.9%

20.8%

62.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

17.5%

20.1%

60.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Austria Lustenau has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.7%)

Sturm Graz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sturm Graz's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Austria Lustenau than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Austria Lustenau, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sturm Graz than the current prediction. (-9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sturm Graz, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
5.9%	11.8%	82.4%

Austria Lustenau - Sturm Graz Predictions

Users Predictions: Sturm Graz will win (14 of 17 users predict this - 82.35%).
Confidence interval (95%): 64.23% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Schierl D. (G) 7. Gmeiner F. 31. Maak M. (C) 6. Grujcic D. 11. Diallo B. 18. Schmid A. 8. Rhein T. 33. Tiefenbach D. 22. Diaby Y. 70. Surdanovic S. 15. Cisse N.	1. Scherpen K. (G) 22. Gazibegovic J. 42. Affengruber D. 5. Wuthrich G. 44. Dante A. 10. Kiteishvili O. 4. Gorenc Stankovic J. (C) 8. Prass A. 19. Horvat T. 9. Wlodarczyk S. 17. Teixeira B.
Substitutes
28. Anderson 4. Berger T. 19. Bobzien B. 21. Helac A. (G) 41. Koc E. 5. Matzler L. 30. Rafael Devisate	15. Boving W. 35. Geyrhofer N. 13. Jantscher J. 20. Jatta S. 2. Johnston M. 31. Maric L. (G) 14. Serrano J.
Coaches
Mader M.	Ilzer C.

Preview

The game of competitors is shaky now.

Sturm could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Sturm is certain favorite.

There will not play in Austria Lustenau: Fridrikas L. (Injury)

There will not play in Sturm: Sarkaria M. (Muscle Injury) Schnegg D. (Red Card)

Last 2 head-to-head matches Austria Lustenau won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 0-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Austria Lustenau won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Austria Lustenau
Austrian Bundesliga
12.08.23	Wolfsberger - Austria Lustenau	1:1 ✺
06.08.23	Austria Lustenau - Austria Wien	0:2 ✺
29.07.23	Hartberg - Austria Lustenau	2:2 ✺
Austrian OFB Cup
22.07.23	Silz Mötz - Austria Lustenau	0:8 ✺
Club Friendly
12.07.23	Austria Lustenau - Dornbirner SV	5:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 TLTWW
- Sturm Graz
UEFA Champions League
15.08.23	Sturm Graz - PSV Eindhoven	1:3 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
12.08.23	Sturm Graz - Austria Klagenfurt	0:0 ✺
UEFA Champions League
08.08.23	PSV Eindhoven - Sturm Graz	4:1 ✺
Austrian Bundesliga
05.08.23	Sturm Graz - LASK Linz	2:0 ✺
30.07.23	Austria Wien - Sturm Graz	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LTLWW

Latest Head to Head

Austrian Bundesliga
04.03.23	Austria Lustenau - Sturm Graz	0:2
18.09.22	Sturm Graz - Austria Lustenau	2:0

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