Match Info

SOUTH AFRICA: Premiership - Round 16

Date: 5 February 2025, Wednesday

Location: Lucas Masterpieces Moripe Stadium (Pretoria)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now
South-africa	SuperSport PSL


	Supersport United		Mamelodi Sundowns

	1	X	2
	4.75	3.2	1.75
	5.45	3.26	1.77
				Watch
	4.8	3.1	1.8
				Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	5 ↓ (5.23)	3.19 ↓ (3.34)	1.77 ↑ (1.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Supersport United
18.6%

Draw
29.1%

Mamelodi Sundowns
52.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

17.5%

27.4%

55.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.9%

26.4%

57.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Supersport United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Mamelodi Sundowns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Supersport United than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mamelodi Sundowns than the current prediction. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	6.2%	81.2%

Supersport United - Mamelodi Sundowns Predictions

Users Predictions: Mamelodi Sundowns will win (13 of 16 users predict this - 81.25%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.12% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Mbanjwa T. (G) 2. Mobbie N. (C) 5. Mbangossoum E. 13. Okon I. 38. Moralo G. 33. Ndebele S. 18. Poggenpoel B. 8. Ndlovu S. 27. Saile C. 46. Magidigidi S. 15. Pule M.	30. Williams R. (C) 28. Mdunyelwa Z. 42. Khoza M. 5. Lebusa M. 31. Tiwani A. 44. Adams J. 4. Mokoena T. 11. Allende M. 10. Ribeiro L. 17. Matthews T. 38. Shalulile P.
Substitutes
25. Ayer Boya K. 11. Dzvukamanja T. 20. Goss R. (G) 24. Lakay L. 17. Lungu G. 34. Moloisane O. 16. Nkosi M. 32. Nurkovic S. 19. Rapoo N.	7. Esquivel M. 37. Johannes K. 19. Kodisang K. 33. Maseko T. 14. Mashego T. 21. Mkhulise S. 1. Onyango D. (G) 13. Rayners I. 3. Suarez L.
Coaches
Hunt G.	Cardoso M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
11', 0 - 1, Adams J. ⚽, Mdunyelwa Z. (A),
24', Ndebele S. 🟨,
42', Mbangossoum E. 🟨,
44', 0 - 2, Matthews T. ⚽, Shalulile P. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Poggenpoel B. ↓, Nkosi M. ↑,
46', Pule M. ↓, Rapoo N. ↑,
49', 0 - 3, Matthews T. ⚽, Ribeiro L. (A),
52', Mdunyelwa Z. ↓, Johannes K. ↑,
53', Ribeiro L. ↓, Maseko T. ↑,
58', Saile C. ↓, Nurkovic S. ↑,
58', Magidigidi S. ↓, Dzvukamanja T. ↑,
59', Ndlovu S. 🟨,
61', Tiwani A. 🟨,
64', Allende M. ↓, Suarez L. ↑,
70', Johannes K. 🟨,
72', Mobbie N. ↓, Lungu G. ↑,
76', Mokoena T. ↓, Esquivel M. ↑,
76', Shalulile P. ↓, Mkhulise S. ↑,
87', Ndebele S. 🟨,

Preview

Watch a game between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a team which is a leader now (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ CAF Champions League).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Supersport United won 1.

Supersport United is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Mamelodi Sundowns is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Mamelodi Sundowns could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Mamelodi Sundowns is a favorite.

Last 20 head-to-head matches Supersport United won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 12 matches and goals 14:27 (average 0.7:1.4).

Including matches at home between the teams Supersport United won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 5:12 (average 0.6:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Supersport United
South African Premier Soccer League
01.02.25	AmaZulu - Supersport United	2:1 ✺
South African Nedbank Cup
28.01.25	Magesi - Supersport United	0:2 ✺
South African Premier Soccer League
17.01.25	Supersport United - Polokwane City	0:1 ✺
12.01.25	Supersport United - Sekhukhune United	0:3 ✺
28.12.24	Supersport United - Stellenbosch	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLT
- Mamelodi Sundowns
South African Premier Soccer League
02.02.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - Lamontville Golden Arrows	4:0 ✺
22.01.25	Magesi - Mamelodi Sundowns	1:2 ✺
CAF Champions League
19.01.25	Mamelodi Sundowns - FAR Rabat	1:1 ✺
11.01.25	Maniema Union - Mamelodi Sundowns	1:2 ✺
04.01.25	Raja Casablanca - Mamelodi Sundowns	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WWTWL

Latest Head to Head

South African Premier Soccer League
17.09.24	Mamelodi Sundowns - Supersport United	2:0
12.03.24	Mamelodi Sundowns - Supersport United	1:1
29.11.23	Supersport United - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:2
16.01.23	Mamelodi Sundowns - Supersport United	1:0
02.09.22	Supersport United - Mamelodi Sundowns	2:1
South African MTN 8 Cup
28.08.22	Mamelodi Sundowns - Supersport United	2:0
South African Premier Soccer League
11.12.21	Supersport United - Mamelodi Sundowns	0:1

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