Match Info

League Two - Round 4

Date: 1 September 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: County Ground (Swindon) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Corlett M. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
United Kingdom	19:45	Sky Sports+
Usa	14:45	SportsEngine Play


	Swindon Town		Port Vale

	1	X	2
	3.10	3.50	2.10	Watch
	3.40	3.25	2.10
	3.15	3.25	2.08	Watch
	3.43	3.54	2.17
	3.1	3.41	2.21	Watch
	3.25	3.45	2.15
	3.31	3.42	2.09	Watch
	3.15	3.35	2.17
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.24 ↑ (2.44)	3.4 ↑ (3.23)	2.13 ↓ (2.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Swindon Town
28.8%

Draw
27.5%

Port Vale
43.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.4%

28.2%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.8%

27.2%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Swindon Town's form might have worsened.

Port Vale has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Port Vale's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+10%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Swindon Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Port Vale than the current prediction. (-10.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Port Vale, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
42.9%	28.6%	28.6%

Swindon Town - Port Vale Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Swindon will win (votes: 3 - 42.9%). Port Vale will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Port Vale (1.90) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Port Vale (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ripley C. (G) 2. Clark M. 5. Negru S. 17. Tafazolli R. 21. Majekodunmi K. 25. Thomson J. 27. Munda A. 8. Clarke O. (C) 28. Palmer O. 23. Drinan A. 7. Nichols T.	1. Smith J. (G) 6. Lawrence-Gabriel J. 25. Humphreys C. 5. Hall C. 15. Gordon L. 38. Walters R. 10. Dempsey K. (C) 11. Hernandez O. 37. Craig M. 19. Waine B. 14. Lynch O.
Substitutes
6. Ball J. 18. Debayo J. 38. Griffiths-Brown L. 20. Middlemas B. 39. Millard L. 19. Snowdon J. 12. Ward L. (G)	8. Garrity B. 33. Hall G. 3. Headley J. 2. Kyle John 20. Marosi M. (G) 22. Montsma L. 17. Simpson T.
Coaches
Holloway I.	Brady J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Lynch O. ⚽, Lawrence-Gabriel J. (A),
13', 1 - 1, Drinan A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Waine B. ↓, Simpson T. ↑,
46', Hernandez O. ↓, Montsma L. ↑,
46', Craig M. ↓, Garrity B. ↑,
56', Nichols T. ↓, Snowdon J. ↑,
56', Tafazolli R. ↓, Middlemas B. ↑,
58', Humphreys C. 🟨,
71', 2 - 1, Middlemas B. ⚽,
74', Palmer O. ↓, Millard L. ↑,
76', Walters R. ↓, Hall G. ↑,
81', Gordon L. ↓, Headley J. ↑,
87', Thomson J. 🟨,
90+3', Drinan A. ↓, Ball J. ↑,
90+4', 3 - 1, Millard L. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Swindon has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 35:25. (average 1.8:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 21:12. (average 2.1:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
14	Swindon	13	4	4	5	13:16	-3	16
23	Port Vale	11	3	3	5	6:12	-6	12

Outrights of English League Two for now

Port Vale: 2.34% Swindon: 1.24%

Last Results with these Odds

Swindon Town - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.43%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Port Vale - the odds 2.66 are the expected chance of winning is 34.33%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Swindon Town
English League Two
29.08.26	Oldham Athletic - Swindon Town	3:0 ✺
22.08.26	Swindon Town - Cheltenham Town	2:1 ✺
15.08.26	Northampton Town - Swindon Town	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Cardiff City - Swindon Town	3:2 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Forest Green Rovers - Swindon Town	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 LWTLW
- Port Vale
English League Two
29.08.26	Port Vale - Crewe Alexandra	0:0 ✺
22.08.26	Port Vale - Tranmere Rovers	1:1 ✺
15.08.26	Oldham Athletic - Port Vale	2:0 ✺
English League Cup
07.08.26	Wolverhampton Wanderers - Port Vale	3:0 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Blackpool - Port Vale	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 TTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
08.02.25	Swindon Town - Port Vale	3:3
28.09.24	Port Vale - Swindon Town	2:1
19.05.22	Port Vale - Swindon Town	2:0 penalties
15.05.22	Swindon Town - Port Vale	2:1
15.01.22	Port Vale - Swindon Town	1:3
11.09.21	Swindon Town - Port Vale	1:2
25.01.20	Swindon Town - Port Vale	3:0

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